Vedum can use close to 100 billion extra from the oil fund in the state budget

The oil fund’s estimated size at the end of 2024 provides guidelines for the use of oil money in the 2025 budget.

So far this year, the fund has increased by over NOK 3,000 billion since the turn of the year due to good times on the world’s stock exchanges, writes Aftenposten.

According to the 3 percent rule, the increase gives Vedum close to NOK 90-100 billion more for good causes next year. He also received almost as much extra money in the 2024 budget.

The 3 percent action rule is a rule for managing the fund for the enjoyment of future generations, and Vedum still has a lot to go on, although it is unlikely that he will choose to do so.

According to the latest estimates, he is facing a significant underspend this year. Although, according to the latest figures, the use of oil money increases by almost NOK 50 billion this year, this means that he uses only 2.7 per cent of the fund, the newspaper writes.

With the current value of the fund, 3 per cent will mean increasing the use of oil money by as much as NOK 150 billion in next year’s state budget. It is the sum of the underspend this year and extra money next year. But this is probably something that will not happen.

– It is so far up to the action rule that it becomes a bit artificial to relate to 3 per cent. The economy is operating at normal capacity, and such high spending will be much more than Norges Bank assumes. Then the interest rate will be kept high for longer than is currently expected, says chief economist Marius Gonsholt Hov at Handelsbanken.

Vedum presents the national budget on Monday 7 October.