As political infighting on both sides of the Atlantic stalls critical aid to Kyiv, European officials are beginning to think about the consequences if Russia wins.
The impasse between the United States and Europe has Ukraine’s allies contemplating something they have been reluctant to imagine since the early days of Russia’s invasion: that Vladimir Putin might win.
Since more than 110 billion US dollar support has become mired in political wrangling between Washington and Brussels, and there are growing doubts about how long Kyiv will be able to contain Russian forces and defend Ukrainian cities, power plants and ports from missile attacks.
In addition to the potentially catastrophic consequences for Ukraine, some European allies have begun to quietly consider the impact on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization of failure in Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. They are reassessing the risks a strengthened Russia poses to alliance members in the east, according to people familiar with the internal conversations, who requested anonymity to discuss non-public matters.
Interlocutors said the fallout would be felt around the world as US partners and allies questioned the credibility of Washington’s defense pledges. The impact of such a strategic failure would be far greater than that caused by 2021. a failed US withdrawal from Afghanistan, they said. And that’s leaving aside the prospect that Donald Trump could win next year’s presidential election and follow through on his public promises to pull out of key alliances, including NATO, and make a deal with Putin over Ukraine.
The growing sense of anxiety has spilled over into public statements by leaders. Their tone is becoming more strident as aid advocates urge their opponents not to hold vital aid hostage to domestic policy priorities, something that has rarely been the case in previous debates.
“If Ukraine does not get support from the EU and the USA, V. Putin will win,” Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said at the European Union summit last week. During the meeting, leaders failed to overcome growing opposition to next year’s $50 billion plan. euro aid package and barely succeeded in approving an essentially symbolic gesture that paves the way for Ukraine’s membership at some point in the future.
Mr. Biden promised to support “as much as we can,” a rhetorical shift from previous pledges to support Ukraine “as much as necessary.”
AFP/”Scanpix” note/Joe Bidenas
Last week, US President Joe Biden pledged to support Ukraine “as much as we can,” a rhetorical shift from earlier pledges to support Ukraine “as much as it takes.” Hardline Republicans in Congress refused to approve the $61 billion. US dollar support for the next year, until Mr. Biden gives in to their demands for a stricter policy in the area of the southern border of the United States. Efforts to reach an agreement have so far failed. On Monday, the Pentagon warned that money for new weapons for Ukraine would run out on December 30 if lawmakers did not act.
In addition to growing public skepticism about the cost of supporting Ukraine, the disappointing results of this summer’s counteroffensive in Kyiv — which saw troops achieve only modest gains against entrenched Russian forces — have fueled doubts about whether Ukraine’s publicly declared goal of recapturing all territory occupied by Putin is realistic, notes Bloomberg.
Recently, allied officials have tended to emphasize Kyiv’s recent military achievements, including successful strikes against the Russian navy in the Black Sea, rather than the huge advances made on land during the first year of the war.
“On both sides of the Atlantic, there is growing concern about insufficient aid to Ukraine and frustration that there is a stalemate with dire consequences on the battlefield,” said Kristine Berzina, executive director of the German Marshall Fund in Washington. “Ukraine may lose additional territories and even sovereignty – it is still possible.”
Calls to prepare for the next war
If Ukraine does not get the weapons it needs to defend itself, European officials say, Russia will likely seek to seize more territory and destroy more infrastructure. Unable to defend themselves, Ukraine may be forced to agree to a cease-fire agreement on Russia’s terms, they said.
Supporters of Ukraine in the EU and the US claim that some form of aid is likely to be approved early next year. But it is unlikely to lead to a major breakthrough on the battlefield, officials said. Moreover, the outlook is getting murkier, even as the stalemate makes it increasingly clear that the fight could drag on for years.
Baltic officials are already urging the public to prepare for the next war, because Putin’s forces in Ukraine will not be destroyed, Bloomberg says. The debate has shifted from whether Russia might attack to concrete preparations for this once-unthinkable prospect. Despite Mr. Biden’s public assurances, there are growing questions about whether the United States and other allies would actually risk their troops to defend the tiny countries that were once part of the Soviet Union.
Russia may be ready to attack NATO within a year once the conflict in Ukraine ends
Shutterstock photo/Vladimir Putin
“Russia is not afraid of NATO,” Estonian military chief Martin Herem said in an interview with local television last week, suggesting that Russia’s military could be ready to attack NATO within a year once the conflict in Ukraine, which is not a member of the alliance, ends. Other Western officials said it would likely take at least several years for Putin to recover from the massive losses his military has suffered in Ukraine, not to mention the threat to the much more capable NATO forces.
But earlier confidence that the invasion would be a “strategic defeat” for the Russian leader has faded, replaced by a growing sense in some quarters that Putin’s bet that he can outwit the United States and its allies may turn out to be correct.
Finland, which joined NATO this year amid a growing threat from Russia, has beefed up its defenses and is seeking to build security ties with the United States. Putin warned on Sunday that Russia plans to deploy more troops along its border, which is the longest between Russia and a NATO member. “There were no problems,” he said. “Now there will be.”
One Western official described a Russian victory as a flood of refugees into the EU, which would increase pressure on these countries’ services and exacerbate tensions between members. At the same time, the official said, the Ukrainian resistance would switch to guerrilla tactics, which would mean that the fighting would continue in a lower gear and entrench instability along the EU’s eastern border.
Other officials said some European countries may seek to strengthen their ties with Moscow or Beijing to avoid over-reliance on the unreliable United States.
With Russian forces potentially much closer to the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, and Crimea giving the Kremlin a dominant position in the Black Sea, the US should invest heavily in its forces in Europe to act as a credible deterrent, according to a report by the Institute for Military Studies released last week.
The U.S. is expected to deploy a “significant portion” of its ground forces, as well as a “significant number” of stealthy aircraft. Given limited U.S. production, this could force the White House to choose between keeping enough forces in Asia to defend Taiwan against a possible Chinese strike or deterring Russia from a NATO attack.
“This whole project is going to cost an enormous amount of money,” analysts led by Frederick W. Kagan said in the report. “The spending will continue as long as the Russian threat continues — potentially indefinitely.”
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2024-07-30 05:04:40
