2023-12-21 22:15:32
US Stock Diary｜Three indexes rebounded, the Dow rose more than 300 points (ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images)
U.S. stocks shook off Wednesday’s losses, with the three major indexes rebounding across the board, with the Dow rising more than 300 points and the Nasdaq rising 1.3%. The stock market rose across the board, with 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 index rising. However, many market participants believe that the current upward trend does not prove that it has entered a bull market and are bearish on the prospects. U.S. GDP in the third quarter was unexpectedly revised down to growth of 4.9%, strengthening the market’s confidence in the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy.
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Market conditions on December 21 (Thursday)
l The Dow Jones index rose 322.35 points, or 0.87%, to 37,404.35 points.
l The S&P 500 index rose 48.40 points, or 1.03%, to 4,746.75 points.
l The Nasdaq index rose 185.92 points, or 1.26%, to 14,963.87 points.
l New York January oil futures closed at US$73.89 a barrel, down US$0.33 or 0.4%.
l New York February gold futures closed at $2,051.30 an ounce, up $3.60 or 0.2%.
l The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 3.894%, up 1.7 points.
After Wednesday’s worst trading day since October, U.S. stocks rebounded across the board on Thursday, with the Dow rising 319 points, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rising 1% and 1.3% respectively.
The S&P 500 gained across the board, with more than 450 stocks rising. Among them, chip stocks have the best upward trend. Micron closed up 8.6% as its results and guidance were better than expected. AMD rose 3.3%, Intel rose 2.9%, and Nvidia rose 1.8%.
Marko Kolanovic, one of the most pessimistic strategists on Wall Street and chief market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, believes that 2024 will not be a good year for U.S. stocks. He said investors should look to cash rather than stocks in 2024 because the Fed seems unlikely to cut interest rates quickly. He pointed out that investors are too confident that an economic recession can be avoided in 2024. Coupled with high stock valuations, narrow interest spreads, and “exceptionally low” volatility, they believe it is not the time to buy stocks in large quantities.
He maintained his end-2024 price target for the S&P 500 at 4,200, which implies the index could fall 12% from current levels.
Michael Riesner, managing partner at Global Macro Cycle Partners, said, “We continue to believe that the current breakout is a preparation for a classic bull market trap, rather than believing that the beginning of a major breakout.” Looking ahead to the new year, Riesner expects a reversal and negative first quarter Unexpected, the S&P 500 is expected to end the quarter at 4,280 points, 10% lower than Thursday’s closing price.
According to the latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, respondents’ optimism rose to 52.9%, up from 51.3% last week and the historical average of only 37.5%. This week has been the most bullish since April 2021 for individual investors’ outlook for stocks over the next six months, with bullish sentiment remaining above historical averages for the seventh consecutive week.
In terms of data, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that U.S. real GDP in the third quarter was revised down to 4.9%, lower than the expected 5.2%. At the same time, the core PCE index was revised down from 2.3% to 2%. Both data are conducive to the Federal Reserve turning dovish.
In terms of economic data on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States increased by 2,000 in the week ended December 16, and the total rose to 205,000, lower than the expected 215,000, and the previous value was 202,000. The number of continuing jobless claims for the week ended December 9 was basically the same as the previous week’s data.
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