2024-01-22 22:38:22
U.S. Stock Diary | The Dow rose above 38,000 points for the first time in history (Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images)
Wall Street stocks rose for three days in a row, with the Dow Jones closing above 38,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500 hitting new intraday and closing highs for two consecutive days. Investors are increasingly confident that U.S. inflation can continue to fall without causing a recession. Oil prices have risen significantly. The Yemeni terrorist organization Youth Movement claimed that it attacked the US freighter “Ocean Jazz” with missiles, but the US claimed that it was untrue. Since the listing of the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin has fallen further, falling below the $40,000 level on Monday, with an intraday drop of 5.5%.
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Market conditions on January 22 (Monday)
l The Dow Jones index rose 138.01 points, or 0.36%, to 38,001.81 points.
l The S&P 500 index rose 10.62 points, or 0.22%, to 4,850.43 points.
l The Nasdaq index rose 49.32 points, or 0.32%, to 15,360.29 points.
l New York February oil futures closed at US$75.19 a barrel, up US$1.78 or 1.4%.
l New York February gold futures closed at $2,022.2 an ounce, down 8.4 or 0.3%.
l The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 4.146%, up 0.2 points.
The two major AI concept chip stocks developed separately after hitting new highs the previous day. AMD retreated 3.4%, and Nvidia also fell once, but the rebound was stable at the end of the market. Among the Big Seven technology stocks, all except Apple and Nvidia fell.
United Airlines reported better-than-expected results after the market closed. The company closed down about 1%. It rose more than 6% in the extended trading session after the market closed. Department store stock Macy’s rejected a US$5.8 billion privatization proposal, and its stock price rose more than 3%.
Florida Governor DeSantis announced his withdrawal from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and also announced his support for Trump’s candidacy for U.S. president. DWAC, held by Trump, rose sharply, closing at 88%.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market currently expects the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March to fall to 40%, significantly lower than the nearly 81% estimate a week ago. The probability that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged is close to 58%, up from about 19% a week ago.
The fourth quarter quarterly performance was worse than average. According to FactSet data, only 69% of the 52 S&P 500 companies that have released financial reports were better than expected. This is lower than the 5-year average of 77% and the 10-year average of 74%. Meanwhile, earnings are down 1.9% for the quarter so far. If the company’s average earnings ultimately decline, it will be the fourth year-over-year earnings decline in the past five quarters.
Citigroup is optimistic about the market outlook, with the S&P 500 index targeting 5,100 points by the end of the year. Strategists such as Scrott Chronert said that although the S&P 500 index reached a new high and the forward price-earnings ratio of the index rose back to above 20, this was a deviation caused by the “Big Seven”. After excluding the excessive influence of the “Big Seven”, it can be concluded that The forward price-to-earnings ratio is about 16, which is 17% lower than the standard valuation of the index. It seems that U.S. stocks are not expensive.
While the S&P 500 index reached new highs, HSBC analyst Max Kettner wrote: “While it may be tempting to chase the latest all-time high, we still believe that there will be a reversal in almost all asset classes in the coming months. He believes that in addition to artificial intelligence benefit stocks, small and micro-cap stocks, high beta coefficient stocks and meme stocks have fallen like European stock markets this year.
Christopher Harvey, an analyst at Wells Fargo, said that even though the overall economic outlook has improved and large-cap stocks have lagged the S&P 500, “we believe the ‘good news shipment’ from large-cap stocks continues.”
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