US Open: Why Aryna Sabalenka is the tournament favorite, even ahead of number 1…

For the fourth consecutive year, will Flushing Meadows crown a new champion? After Emma Raducanu, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka would like to conquer New York. The Belarusian approaches this 2024 edition of the US Open (from August 26 to September 8) in ideal conditions. By winning the WTA 1000 in Cincinnati without losing a single set in preparation, she has both won her second title of the year (after the Australian Open in January) and regained the world number 2 spot.

Sabalenka is certainly on the rise. But in a women’s circuit with a well-established hierarchy for several months, she is not the only contender. Alongside her, world number 1 Iga Swiatek cannot be underestimated, as can their two pursuers: Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff. Both have also won Grand Slam titles – the American is even the defending champion – and are well established in this leading quartet.

In New York the courts are quite fast and Swiatek is not as efficient.

And yet, Sabalenka does indeed seem to have a head start on the others. Firstly because of the playing conditions in New York.There are very few players who think they can beat her on hard courts. Some believe Sabalenka can beat herself. But the more wins she gets, especially against Iga Swiatek and the best players in the world, the less true that is.underlines Mats Wilander, consultant for Eurosport. Sabalenka knows she can win matches and tournaments when she’s not at her best. And that’s what makes her play her best tennis more often..”

In Ohio a few days ago, she provided clear proof of this. Sabalenka not only ended a series of three defeats against the world number 1, but she did so by smothering her in two straight sets (6-3, 6-3) in the semi-final, something she had never managed to do in their previous duels (Swiatek still leads 8-4 by a wide margin, Editor’s note). On fast hard courts, Sabalenka does not need to force her talent or overplay, her natural power and her ability to accelerate at hip height make the difference. She is the one who dictates the game.

“Swiatek’s game is really better suited to slower courts, either clay or slower hard courts. This court in New York is pretty fast, and on some shots she’s not as effective. To me, she hasn’t changed her game much. I don’t see her going to the net more or making drastic changes. She hasn’t needed to because she’s better than everyone on clay.“, explains another legend of the game for Eurosport, John McEnroe.

Absent from Wimbledon and the Games, Sabalenka also has the advantage of freshness

Her victim in the Cincinnati final, Jessica Pegula, did not hesitate to compare Sabalenka to a certain Serena Williams on serve. The Belarusian had thus left her only three small points behind her first serve. And at Flushing Meadows, she feels particularly good. In the last three editions, she has at least reached the last four (two semis in 2021 and 2022, a final last year), which she has not done anywhere else, including the Australian Open, even if she remains on two titles there.

And another major element plays in her favor: her state of form and fatigue compared to that of her rivals.Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t played Wimbledon or the Olympics, so she might be a little fresher physically and mentally than the others. If I had to pick someone, she would be a big contender.“, recalls John McEnroe.

Before her return to action in Washington in early August, she had not played competitively for over a month, having been forced to withdraw from the British Major at the last minute due to a shoulder injury. As frustrating as this impasse was, and then the one at the Games (which was confirmed even before her injury for other reasons since she could not compete under the Belarusian colours, Editor’s note), it undoubtedly allowed her to recharge her batteries more than the competition and to avoid additional changes of surfaces between grass and dirt and then between dirt and hard.

She may be her own greatest enemy.

“She’s a huge favorite and it’s a big change.adds Mats Wilander. Because in women’s tennis, we haven’t had a big favorite, especially on hard courts, for a few years. It was the case on clay at Roland-Garros of course (with Swiatek), but otherwise no. And it’s also perhaps the first time for Sabalenka that everyone expects her to win..”

And that is perhaps the biggest trap to avoid for Belarus: buckling under the weight of her own expectations and those of the public. Even if Sabalenka controls her emotions much better than in the past, she had gradually let slip a final that she controlled last year against Gauff and a furious American public. But since then, she has doubled the bet in Melbourne in Grand Slam and gained even more confidence. So she has the cards in hand, it is up to her to play them.