“US Monetary Policy and Inflation Data: Market Reviews and Stock Market Trends”

2023-05-10 12:07:17

(Photo: The Canadian Press)

MARKET REVIEWS. Stock markets are cautiously awaiting some response on the evolution of US monetary policy with new inflation data, as the possibility of a US default creates some anxiety among investors . Wall Street was headed for a similar trend.

Stock indices at 8 a.m.

The futures contracts Dow Jones posted a decline of 48.00 points (-0.14%) to 33,589.00 points.

The futures contracts S&P 500 decreased by 3.75 points (-0.09%) to 4,130.25 points.

The futures contracts Nasdaq posted a decline of 1.75 points (-0.01%) to 13,263.00 points.

In London, the FTSE 100 gave up 12.56 points (-0.16%) to 7,751.53 points.

In Paris, the CAC 40 lost 17.31 points (-0.23%) to 7,379.86 points.

In Frankfurt, the DAX fell 41.46 points (-0.26%) to 15,914.02 points.

In Asia, the Nikkei of Tokyo fell by 120.64 points (-0.41%) to 29,122.18 points.

For his part, the Hang Seng Hong Kong fell 105.38 points (-0.53%) to 19,762.20 points.

On the oil side, the price per barrel of American WTI was down US$0.75 (-1.02%) at US$72.96.

The barrel of North Sea Brent was down US$0.77 (-0.99%) at US$76.67.

The context

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States for April will be released at 8:30 am.

A slowdown in inflation would give the US central bank (Fed) more leeway not to raise its rates, while many risks hang over the US economy.

“The publication on inflation is major: it will be key to determining the timing of a pivot” in the monetary policy of the Fed, that is to say the transition from a restrictive policy to an accommodating policy, analyzes Neil Wilson, for markets. com.

For Pierre Veyret, analyst at ActivTrades, “an acceleration of price pressure might suggest that the Fed has not gone far enough in its rate hike cycle, which would reduce investors’ risk appetite”.

A week ago, the Fed raised its key rates by a quarter of a point. After ten successive hikes to curb inflation, US central bank officials then seemed less firm in their statement on future rate hikes than at their previous meetings.

But New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday that the institution was not ruling out a further rate hike at its next meeting on June 13-14.

In Europe, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, left the door open for further rate hikes, in the face of inflation deemed still too high following seven rate hikes in a row, in an interview appeared Wednesday in the Japanese newspaper Nikkei.

Investors are also cautious following negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling remained deadlocked on Tuesday. Discussions on the future of the debt ceiling, however, will continue Friday between Democrats and Republicans.

Faced with this political stalemate, two-year US rates stood above 4% on Wednesday, at 4.05% once morest 4.03% the day before.

A possible default is “the tail risk”, but until the problem is resolved, “it will weigh on the risk appetite in general… attacking the confidence” of market participants, according to Mr Wilson.

Asos in the red

L’action d’Asos fell 13.7% to 548.40 pence following the British online clothing retailer fell into the red in the first half due to a restructuring, which weighs on its sales and its accounts, and d a “difficult” commercial context.

Compass raises its forecast

The British collective catering giant Compass on Wednesday raised its forecast for the 2023 financial year following publishing a sharply higher half-year profit. The stock rose 2.08% to 2,108 pence.

Banks wanted

In Paris, the action of Agricultural credit rose more than 5%, following the banking group published better-than-expected results in the first quarter, thanks to the record performance of its investment bank. In the followingmath, Societe Generale took 1.89%, while Commerzbank (+1,10%) et Deutsche Bank (+1.22%) also appreciated in Frankfurt.

On the side of currencies and oil

The dollar stabilized once morest the euroclimbing 0.03% to US$1.0958 per euro.

Oil prices were falling, following the release of the first weekly data on commercial crude reserves in the United States showed an increase, a sign of a possible weakening of American demand.

The barrel of North Sea Brentfor July delivery, was down 1.29% to US$76.43.

Its American equivalent, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI)for June delivery, fell 1.34% to US$72.71.

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