2023-09-13 01:10:14
The figures for the increase in consumer prices for the month of August in the United States will be revealed this Wednesday. They might influence the bond market.
This Wednesday, all investors’ attention will be focused on the publication of US inflation for the month of August, expected at 2:30 p.m. Belgian time. Nominal inflation should be at 3.6%, according to the consensus of economists calculated by the Bloomberg agency, compared to 3.2% in July.
On a month-to-month basis, inflation is expected to have reached 0.6% in August, compared to 0.2% in the previous month. But excluding food and energy prices, the picture should be different: underlying inflation is expected to fall, at 4.3% over one year, compared to 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, it would have remained stable at 0.2%.
“This American statistic is the main event of the week because the Fed (the Federal Reserve, Editor’s note) is particularly sensitive to new inflation data”, underlines Adam Cole, chief strategist at RBC Capital Markets, quoted by the Archyde.com agency. The American central bank meets on Tuesday and next Wednesday.
Inflation data likely to significantly influence rates in the bond market, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.
“Surprises on data release day have caused significant rate movements in recent years,” they note. “According to our probabilities, there is a 50% chance that August inflation will be exactly in line with the consensus and around 20% chance of having an upward surprise (inflation above expectations, Editor’s note), either for nominal inflation or for underlying inflation.
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