A SocialData analysis of 1 billion mentions and 6 billion interactions predicted Trump’s victory
There are those who predicted everything: an analysis by SocialData, conducted on approximately 1 billion mentions and more than 6 billion online interactions on social media in the four months that passed from Kamala Harris’s candidacy up to the day before the vote, had assigned a large victory for Donald Trump. A “red wave”, in short, with the Republican candidate widely favored “online”.
In this case, social media faithfully reflected reality with the Republican candidate who, even simply observing basic metrics, such as the number of mentions on the web and on to the Democratic rival.
“We know well how the weight of the perception of other people’s opinions can significantly influence voting behavior, particularly among the undecided, and we can therefore say that the ability of social media to act as a spotlight on the preferences of the electorate has also played a crucial role in these elections” these are the words with which Luca Ferlaino, marketing, digital and data analytics expert and founder of SocialData, commented on the results of the research.
SocialData analysis highlighted how the popularity that develops on social media can be reflected in actual votes. And according to the analysis of Luca Ferlaino’s team, the result was clear: Trump would have won hands down.
A comparison between the various states based on positive engagement, chosen as the most representative and qualitative metric, saw Harris ahead in only 10 out of 50 states, and not among the most influential: New York, Delaware, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Washington, Oregon, Wyoming and New Hampshire.
The recurring themes in the discussions, however, highlighted a more abstract and future-oriented approach for Harris, except the symbolic value of the possibility of becoming the first female president. Trump, on the contrary, builds a narrative based on American identity, the collaboration with Elon Musk, and events such as the attack in Pennsylvania, themes that most affect the collective imagination. Among the supporters who generated the most engagement for Trump were figures of strong appeal linked to the American identity, while for Harris international celebrities such as Beyoncé and Taylor Swift emerged, as well as former presidents such as Biden, Obama and Carter.
Of course, social media does not represent a faithful copy of reality, but a parallel plan that can influence public perception and, consequently, move the undecided. We had proof of how this translated into the actual vote.
#elections #predicted #Trumps #victory #Tempo
**Interview with Luca Ferlaino, Founder of SocialData**
**Editor**: Welcome, Luca! Thank you for joining us today. Your recent analysis indicated a strong performance for Donald Trump based on social media interactions. Can you share how this analysis was conducted?
**Luca Ferlaino**: Thank you for having me. Our team at SocialData analyzed approximately 1 billion mentions and over 6 billion interactions across various social media platforms in the four-month period leading up to the election. We focused on engagement metrics that could give us insight into public sentiment.
**Editor**: That’s quite an extensive dataset! What were some key findings from your analysis regarding Trump’s online presence compared to Kamala Harris?
**Luca Ferlaino**: The findings were quite striking. Our analysis showed that Trump not only had significantly more mentions than Harris, but he also enjoyed significantly higher positive engagement across most states. In fact, Harris only led in positive engagement in 10 out of 50 states, and those states were not the most politically influential.
**Editor**: Interesting! You mentioned that social media can significantly influence voting behavior, especially among undecided voters. Can you elaborate on this?
**Luca Ferlaino**: Absolutely. Social media often acts as a reflection of public sentiment. The perception of how others feel can heavily impact those who are undecided. When people observe a strong preference for a candidate online, it can sway their own opinions and ultimately influence their voting choices.
**Editor**: Given these findings, what implications do you see for future elections based on social media dynamics?
**Luca Ferlaino**: The trend indicates that candidates need to prioritize their online presence and engagement. As we’ve seen, a strong showing on social media can translate to real-world support. Moving forward, both parties will need to leverage digital platforms more effectively to connect with voters.
**Editor**: Great insights, Luca! Thank you for sharing your expertise with us today. We look forward to seeing how these dynamics play out in future elections.
**Luca Ferlaino**: Thank you! It’s been a pleasure discussing this important topic.
