Well, well, well, folks. It seems like we’re inching toward yet another spectacularly entertaining chapter in the great American circus we call presidential elections. You’ve got Kamala Harris, the Vice President, fighting to keep her ‘Biden’ side of the fence intact while Donald Trump is practically treating election season like it’s Black Friday and he’s trying to clear out stock!
Let’s break this down, shall we? According to the latest polls from FiveThirtyEight—much like your Aunt Janet’s overcooked turkey, they’re almost too close to call—Harris is leading Trump by a needle-thin margin of 1.8 points. Think of it as a nail-biting contest of ‘who can stay on the seesaw longer,’ without falling off!
Now, we see that Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance, has a new side hustle: bashing legal immigration as if it were last season’s fashion trend. He’s out there in Arizona, proudly declaring they’d stop mass granting of Temporary Protected Status. Quite the sales pitch, eh? The ‘Come for the freedom, stay for the paperwork’ approach.
And let’s not forget about the overseas voters. Turns out, with between 4.4 to 9 million Americans living abroad, the actual turnout is less impressive than a soggy pizza. Only 8% managed to cast their ballots in 2020! You know, voting should really be simpler than a game of Monopoly, but here we are!
In the great state of Michigan, a federal judge decided that the Republicans should take a chill pill on their pursuit to erase inactive voters from the rolls. Who knew democracy could be so contentious? It’s like trying to convince your friends to go to the gym—one side is all about ‘let’s remove the unfit’ while the other side is like, ‘but we haven’t even seen the acceptance speeches yet!’
Oh, and folks, the Georgia Supreme Court has also come in with a ruling deciding that a slew of controversial election rules—thought up by Trump!—aren’t going to make an appearance. Impressive, huh? A conservative court actually siding against more conservative rules—cue the applause!
Meanwhile, Obama is leading by example—after voting by mail, he had everyone on the edge of their seats when he said he walked to the mailbox. Now, you might think, "Isn’t that normal?" But trust me! For a former President with around-the-clock Secret Service protection, a casual stroll sends shockwaves through the establishment.
As for Georgia, it seems Trump is getting more support there, which makes sense given the state’s narrative around immigration. Poetic, isn’t it? It’s like writing a love song about a breakup while still swiping right on Tinder.
And look, Hispanic voters, a crucial demographic, are gearing up for this election. With an estimated 17.5 million expected to show up, politics is about to get lively! Although, let’s be honest, the last thing you want in this political climate is marketing to swing voters like you’re some cheesy late-night infomercial.
But don’t worry! Both candidates are ramping up their outreach, with Kamala sitting down for a Telemundo interview. Will it be a heartfelt conversation or a chance for a surprising narrative twist? Place your bets!
In summary: It’s close, it’s chaotic, and it’s delightful. Will Harris maintain her lead like a seasoned card dealer, or will Trump pull a rabbit out of his hat—spoiler alert: there’s always a rabbit! Grab your popcorn, folks; it’s shaping up to be a wild ride, and in the game of politics, there’s never a dull moment!
Las presidential elections in the United States they get closer Two weeks before the elections, the latest polls reveal a situation of great parity between the candidates, which is why the vice president Kamala Harris (Democratic Party) and the former president Donald Trump (Republican Party) They strive to capture the vote of the undecided.
US Presidential Poll AverageFiveThirtyEight
The update of FiveThirtyEight al October 21which shows the average of each candidate in national polls, shows that the Democrat surpasses the former president by 1.8 points, with a 48.2% of the preference, against 46.4% of the businessman.
Donald Trump’s vice candidate, Senator JD Vance, deepened the Republican campaign’s attacks against immigration, although legal in this case. He took aim at migrants working legally in the United States and said Trump will end programs that authorize that possibility.
“What Donald Trump has proposed to do is stop doing mass parole. “We are going to stop massively granting Temporary Protected Status,” Vance said in Peoria, Arizona, as published The New York Times. Currently, there are 864,000 immigrants who have legal residence through the Temporary Protected Status program, created by Congress in 1990 for those fleeing wars and dictatorships. This currently reaches countries like Venezuela, El Salvador and Haiti.
The challenge of attracting voters living abroad, a segment of the population whose size the main political parties and external experts estimate between 4.4 and 9 millionthe thing is It is believed that only a small part votes. According to ReutersUnlike citizens of many other countries, American voters cannot go to their embassies on Election Day. Instead, They must send the ballots in the states where they are registered, normally by mail.
According to the US Federal Voter Assistance Program.the majority of its citizens who live abroad and have the right to vote tend not to vote. It is estimated that less than 8% submitted their ballots in the 2020 presidential election, a figure that contrasts with the overall participation rate of 67%. The overseas voter turnout rate in the 2022 midterm elections was just 3.4%.
According to the US Federal Voter Assistance Program, most Americans who live abroad and have the right to vote tend not to voteMatt Slocum – AP
This Tuesday, a federal judge reversed the demand of the Republican National Committee that was trying to force Michigan to remove inactive voters from the rolls. The decision comes amid a battle over the integrity of Michigan’s voter rolls, waged between the state’s top election officials and Elon Musk, who promotes false claims that there are more registered voters than citizens in the state.
Stickers with the “I voted” logo at a polling station in the USANDREW HARNIK – GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA
This Tuesday, the Georgia Supreme Court decided that will not allow the state election board to enforce a series of election rules that were approved by allies of Donald Trump. The ruling, handed down unanimously by a conservative majority, stated that “the justices did not rule on the legality of the seven rules, but instead refused to pause a decision issued by a lower court judge that overturned them last week.” .
The Georgia Supreme Court has decided it will not allow the state’s election board to enforce a series of controversial election rules.
Former President Barack Obama cast his vote by mail, he announced during a campaign rally in Wisconsin on Tuesday. “Don’t wait”said. “Yesterday I voted in Chicago. “I got my ballot, I filled it out, I stamped it, I signed it and then I walked – something I don’t always have the opportunity to do, and the Secret Service got nervous – but I said, now let’s walk to a mailbox,” the former president said.
Former President Barack Obama speaks at an event Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024, in Madison, Wis.Morry Gash – AP
Distinctive polls agree in giving a slight advantage to Donald Trump in Georgiaover Kamala Harris. The FiveThirtyEight polling average projects a support of 48.5% for the former president and 47% for the vice president of the Joe Biden government in this jurisdiction, considered one of the hinge states. Immigration controversies could be the source of Trump’s greatest support, according to a study among Georgia voters.
The Trump-driven narrative that “millions of illegal immigrants” are “invading” The US, together with the distrust of a part of the electorate regarding the growth of foreigners registered to vote this year, could be moving a segment of voters towards the Republican.
In the Georgia polls, Trump is a few points ahead of Harris (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Trump’s campaign receives a major boost from Elon Musk in the final weeks of the race for the White House. This Tuesday, America PAC reported to federal regulators about a new round of independent expenses, bringing the total of disclosed expenses to just over 110 million dollars, including more than 70 million dollars which the super PAC designated as expenditures on campaigns and field operations. The rest of the money went to digital ads, print and mail, text messages and phone calls.
Donald Trump and South African businessman Elon Musk during the former Republican president’s campaign event in Butler, PennsylvaniaKEVIN DIETSCH – GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA
At least 17.5 million Hispanics will vote in these elections, according to the Educational Fund of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO).
So they can make a difference, especially in the seven so-called hinge or pendulum states, because they do not lean towards any party, but rather choose based on the candidate.
Most Latinos vote Democratic, but Trump has stolen Hispanic votes since he entered politics, especially among men.
Harris gives an interview this Tuesday to the Spanish-language network Telemundo, which will broadcast some fragments in the afternoon and publish the entire thing on Wednesday.
In order to cast a regular vote in Texas, Citizens must present one of the seven acceptable forms of identification with photography at the voting centers. According to the state government, these documents are the following:
Different polls anticipate a victory for Trump by a slim margin. For example, the consultant AtlasIntel registers a support of 50.2% for the Republican and 47.3% for the Democrat, which represents an advantage of almost three points in favor of former President Trump.
At the company Trafalgar Groupfor its part, estimates a distance of almost two points between the two, with a voting intention of 46% for the businessman and 44.2% for Harris. In this universe of respondents, 3.6% responded that they will choose other candidates and 6.3% said that they have not yet decided who they will vote for.
Some of the latest polls in Michigan anticipate Trump as the winnerTrafalgar Group
Early in-person voting began this week in Hawaii, Utah, Missouri and Wisconsin, while candidates have begun urging their supporters to cast their votes before Election Day.
Wisconsin is one of three Rust Belt states that voted for former President Trump in 2016 and then returned to Democrats in 2020. President Biden won the state by just 20,682 votes, or 0.7 points.
The vice presidential candidate for the Democratic Party, TIm Walz will participate in campaign activities in Wisconsin with the former president Barack Obama.
It will be at 2:30 pm ET in Madison. Walz will then travel to Racine for another performance at 7:45 pm ET. For his part, JD Vance, Donald Trump’s vice candidate, will star in two campaign events. First, in Arizona (Peoria, at 4 pm ET). And then in Tucson, at 7:30 pm ET.
Democratic vice presidential candidate and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz speaks at a campaign event on Monday, October 14, 2024 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)Jeffrey Phelps – FR59249 AP
The fight continues vote by vote of the candidates. The former president Donald Trump plans receive Latin leaders at its Miami golf resort. Then he will go to Greensboro, North Carolina, one of the hinge states. Meanwhile, the Democrat Kamala Harris plans record separate interviews with NBC y Telemundowithout knowing if he will have any other activity.
An analysis published by Robert Tait in the The Guardian, shows that the figures are increasingly tight. “With barely half a month left, the United States presidential elections are at a stalemate. Harris has a small lead in Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, although the races remain too close to make predictions with certainty.”
To date, the battle in the hinge states remains close in the US.FiveThirtyEight and The Times
The average of 10 day surveys Guardianwith a cut-off date of October 19, shows Kamala Harris with a national lead of just one point, 48% to 47%about his Republican opponent Donald Trump. The significant fact is that the battle is closing, Harris has lost his advantage, he is well below the 4% he registered three weeks ago.
The latest report of Suffolk Universitysponsored by USA Todayprojects 50% support for Harris and 49% for Trump, which represents an advantage of just one point.
Other surveys, such as Ipsos —sponsored by Reuters—and that of Morning Consultpredict a gap in favor of Harris of three and four points respectively, in line with the numbers that the vice president obtained weeks ago. While the first consultant estimates support of 46% for her and 43% for him, the second registers 50% and 46% respectively.
The national poll average between Harris and Trump
Harris voters They look at the polls with uncertainty in Arizonaa pendulum state that will be crucial for the electoral outcome.
Trump voters They miss his presidency and the harsh measures against immigrants who seek to reach the United States.
Arizona and the US elections
Some political leaders make up a dissident group that rejects the figure of the former president from a critical view of his leadership style and his populist rhetoric. In fact, in August the group “Republicans for Harris”.
In September, Some 111 Republicans signed a public letter of support for the vice president. These are the main figures who internally oppose the former president:
THE NATION
