2023-09-02 06:00:00
2023-09-02 02:00 Editorial
The evaluation of Minister of Commerce Raimondo’s visit to China seems to be: three points of success and seven points of failure; the next node of the game between the United States and China depends on whether the Biden administration will extend the control of Taiwan and South Korea’s exports to China in October. The exemption of the chip, and whether the two study sessions next week and November will be successful.
Before Raimondo’s trip, all parties pointed out that this was a symbol of the recovery of US-China relations, but both the US and China released a message that there is no need to expect too much. Afterwards, the only thing the two sides agreed on was “establishing communication on business work”, China’s Ministry of Commerce At the press conference following Raimondo left China, three results were announced: the US and Chinese ministers of commerce will meet at least once a year; the two sides will set up a working group composed of vice-ministerial and bureau-level officials, and hold two vice-ministerial meetings every year , and invited business representatives from both sides to participate; the two sides launched an export control information exchange mechanism. At the same time, the two sides agreed to hold a high-level dialogue on tourism between China and the United States in the first half of 2024.
This is the latest progress in the pursuit of stable relations between the United States and China. The Biden administration finally has a communication channel with the Chinese side at least in terms of business exchanges. The result to be restored.
However, these exchanges and the establishment of a working group, the Republican Congress immediately exploded. McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that it was “naive and dangerous” for the Biden administration to join forces with the CCP to establish an export control working group. “The United States itself The objects and targets to be sanctioned do not require prior consultation with the CCP.”
The New York Times also criticized, pointing out that China’s non-compliance with the agreement is a bad example. One of the conditions for the CCP’s accession to the WTO in 2001 was to allow American credit card companies to enter China’s financial consumer market. In the Chinese market, however, it has completely lost its ability to compete with “Alipay”. Successive ministers of commerce have achieved good deals following their visits to China, but they were disgraced followingwards. American businessmen were subjected to great political interference when they entered the Chinese market. I was shocked to be subject to the kidnapping of the Chinese supply chain.
One of the most concerned is the export control information exchange mechanism. Because when Raimondo was still visiting Beijing, the US and Chinese officials immediately held the first meeting on the export control information exchange platform in Beijing; After Micron’s retaliation caused friction, the US, under the pressure of domestic industry lobbying, felt that it needed to immediately open a new communication channel with China to resolve disputes, explain their respective export control systems and improve communication mechanisms.
The first test of this mechanism is coming soon. In October last year, the United States imposed temporary export controls on chips, which was the beginning of the Biden administration’s technology sanctions once morest the CCP. Taiwan’s TSMC, South Korea’s Samsung and many other chip factories are also prohibited from exporting to China because they use American manufacturing technology. However, the Biden administration temporarily decided to exempt them for one year, which is now regarding to expire. In June this year, it was reported that the Ministry of Commerce intends to extend it “indefinitely”. If it is extended indefinitely, TSMC and Samsung will naturally benefit.
Washington Post national security columnist Luo Jin speculates that Raimondo may convey the bad news to China that the one-year exemption period for the chip ban that expires in October will not be extended at the first export control meeting in Beijing. Raimondo greeted China first, and the exemption will be terminated at that time, which will not only protect Biden from criticism from the Republican Party, but also her political capital for the presidential nomination in 2028.
It is generally believed that the current internal and external governance in China is in chaos, and the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, who holds economic, trade and technological power, is the one the CCP wants to contact. The situation forces the CCP to soften its posture and start negotiations with the U.S. on economic and trade issues. The three-track pattern of “cooperation, competition, and confrontation” formulated by the Dengmin government. The Biden administration’s grand strategy for China has been determined, and the rest is the implementation stage. The CCP has struggled with it for more than a year, but still has to face this reality.
That is to say, in this case, whether or not the study session will be held is more symbolic than substantial. There are currently two opportunities, one is the G20 summit in India in September, and the other is the APEC summit in San Francisco in November. So far, it looks like both will fail. The Indian organizers have announced that Xi Jinping will not be able to attend the G20, and the White House has publicly stated that it refuses to invite the sanctioned Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee Ka-chao. If Xi Jinping still attends the APEC summit in San Francisco, it will be difficult to explain internally. Xi Jinping’s meeting at the end of the year is destined to be a waste of effort.
The Biden administration now wants to continue to be tough on the CCP. The purpose is to force the CCP to follow the trend of the times and make reforms. The “Panda faction” in the American political, academic and business circles is deeply afraid of offending the CCP, but the United States and abroad currently have enough strength to force the CCP to make reforms and open up. market, otherwise the U.S. will maintain its siege, and the CCP regime will have no way to continue except to choose reforms.
CCP Biden Raimondo
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