The Rupiah exchange rate in trading on Wednesday (23/10) opened lower by 38 points or 0.24% to Rp. 15,605 per US dollar from the previous Rp. 15,567 per US dollar. This weakening occurred in line with the strengthening of United States (US) Government bond yields.
“The rupiah is expected to weaken against the US dollar which will continue to strengthen and US bond yields will rise due to lower expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed,” said currency analyst Lukman Leong in Jakarta, Wednesday.
He said the yield on 10-year US Government bonds rose to 4.222 percent.
The strengthening of the US dollar was supported by weakness in the Euro due to the prospect of a faster European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut after Laggard’s statement regarding inflation in the Eurozone which fell faster than expectations.
Apart from that, the US dollar is also still supported by the situation in the Middle East and uncertainty ahead of the US Presidential Election (Pilpres).
Lukman estimates that the Rupiah today will move in the range of IDR 15,550 per US dollar to IDR 15,650 per US dollar. (Ant/Z-11)
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Title: Analyzing Market Movements: An Interview with Currency Analyst Lukman Leong
Interviewer: Thank you for joining us today, Lukman. The Rupiah has seen some fluctuations recently, notably weakening against the US dollar. Can you explain what led to this decline on October 23rd?
Lukman Leong: Thank you for having me! The Rupiah opened lower, dropping by 38 points to Rp. 15,605 per US dollar. This decline is closely related to the strengthening of US Government bond yields. Specifically, the yield on 10-year US bonds rose to 4.222 percent, which puts upward pressure on the US dollar.
Interviewer: Interesting. What factors contributed to the rise in US bond yields?
Lukman Leong: Lower expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have played a significant role. Investors are beginning to rethink their strategies in light of recent statements from the Fed, which suggests that the current interest rates might remain stable for a while.
Interviewer: You also mentioned the weakening of the Euro impacts the US dollar’s strength. Can you elaborate on that?
Lukman Leong: Certainly. The Eurozone’s outlook has shifted following commentary from the European Central Bank regarding inflation. Their prospects for a quicker interest rate cut have made the Euro less attractive, which in turn boosts the US dollar’s position in the market.
Interviewer: It sounds like a complex global interplay. Given this situation, where do you see the Rupiah moving in the near term?
Lukman Leong: I estimate that the Rupiah will trade in a range between IDR 15,550 and IDR 15,650 per US dollar today. However, ongoing global economic conditions will be critical in determining its trajectory in the coming weeks.
Interviewer: Thank you, Lukman, for your insight into these market dynamics. It seems that currency movements can be a reflection of broader economic trends.
Lukman Leong: Absolutely. Economic outlooks in different regions can significantly impact currencies, and it’s important for investors to stay informed about these changes. Thank you for having me.
