2024-01-08 02:00:42
The Indian rupee and bond yields will look to US inflation data this week for when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut borrowing costs, as well as Indian inflation data.
US inflation figures are due on Thursday, while Indian inflation figures are due the next day.
The US data was more important from a rupee perspective, while for bond yields, it is the Indian data that will be important, a bank Treasury official said.
He expects the rupee to be in the 83.00-83.30 range, with “an upward trend”.
The rupee ended Friday at 83.15, up regarding 0.1% for the week and faring better than most of its Asian counterparts.
The closely watched US jobs report released on Friday is unlikely to have a major impact on the rupee, according to traders.
U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in December and wages rose more than expected, but the number of jobs created in the previous two months was revised downward.
Although the employment number was higher than expected, the three-month average was 165,000, down from 284,000 the previous year, with net revisions totaling -71,000, ANZ said in a statement. note.
The trend “indicates a substantial slowdown in hiring”, but momentum still appears too robust for the Fed to proceed with a taper in March, ANZ said.
OBLIGATIONS
The yield on India’s benchmark 10-year bond ended higher in the first week of 2024 at 7.2348%, rising six basis points on the week.
Traders expect the yield to fluctuate between 7.18% and 7.27% this week, and expect volumes to increase following the weak trading seen in recent weeks.
However, some traders are optimistic regarding the outlook and see bond yields easing.
India’s benchmark bond yield is expected to fall by around 50 basis points, reaching 6.75% in the coming months, while short-term debt might see larger declines, leading to a steepening of the yield curve, said Vikas Goel, managing director at primary dealer PNB Gilts.
The domestic yield curve is expected to steepen in 2024, amid bets on rate cuts from the Fed and the Reserve Bank of India.
Additionally, attention remains focused on the actions of foreign investors who continued to buy government bonds in the first week of 2024, following their largest purchases in six years in 2023.
KEY EVENTS: **US November International Trade – January 9, Tuesday **US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Week to January 1 – January 11, Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST) (Archyde.com Poll 0.2 % over the month)
**US December CPI – January 11, Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST)
**India December Consumer Price Index – January 12, Friday (5:30 p.m. IST) (Archyde.com poll 5.7% YoY) **India November Industrial Production – January 12, Friday (17 :30 pm IST) (Archyde.com poll 5.7% year-on-year)
**PPI machine manufacturing – January 12, Friday (7:00 pm IST) (reporting by Nimesh Vora and Dharamraj Dhutia; editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil)
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