2024-07-18 09:24:00
The secret ballot will begin at 11:00 GMT (1:00 p.m. in France) on Thursday. Ursula von der Leyen, who has served as Europe’s executive president since 2019, must be approved by at least 361 of the 719 MEPs in the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg to win a second five-year term.
Ahead of the crucial vote, the German official presented her political plans for the next five years to them on Thursday morning. In an hour-long speech, she tried to respond to the sometimes conflicting expectations of the various political groups.
Long-time Advocate “Geopolitical Committee”, She pleaded “A strong Europe” exist ‘A time of great anxiety and uncertainty’ In front of it “Agitators and [aux] Extremists are destroying our European way of life. Its purpose is to guarantee stability in the face of world tensions: trade disputes with Beijing, the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East… “The bloodshed in Gaza must stop immediately” She was talking on the phone “Immediate and lasting ceasefire”.
Environmental Commitment
Ursula von der Leyen’s priorities are to boost competitiveness and massively step up investment in key industries and defence.
It also intends to achieve an ambitious climate target of a 90% net reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2040. This target, a key step towards carbon neutrality by 2050, will appear in the text of legislation proposed by member states in the next Commission, she noted. She also promised a “clean industry” plan to reduce energy bills, and an “affordable housing plan” for precarious families, with the creation of a dedicated commissioner for the issue for the first time.
These promises may convince members of the 53-seat Green Party to put their names to the ballot box. Their co-leader, Dutchman Bas Eickhout, warned that his group was waiting for this ” It pledges to refuse any concessions on the Green Deal and to take steps on issues that remain unresolved: climate adaptation, oceans…”. See if this Thursday’s announcement is enough in their eyes.
Consensus but not unanimity
Overall, the impact of the speech was far from anecdotal, as the vote is expected to be close following the rise of the far right in June’s European elections. However, the German conservative appears to be in a strong position, as the G27 agreed at the end of June to grant her this new term on top of her first. Indeed, the manager has been able to maintain her position amid crises ranging from Covid-19 to the war in Ukraine, while producing major legislation such as the Green Deal, digital rules and the asylum and migration pact.
Technically, the grand coalition of centrist parties has enough seats (401 out of 361 required for an absolute majority) to guarantee him another term as president. Its parent party, the European People’s Party (EPP, right), remains the main force in parliament (188 elected MPs), the Social Democrats (S&D) hold 136 seats and the Liberal Party (Renew) 77. Ranking: Parts of the EPP (including the French Republicans) do not support his choice, and the German liberals show reluctance, as do the Irish liberals…
If it fails, member states will have to propose new candidates within a month and might risk a serious political crisis if they are left with no other choice.
“We are aware of the risks, that other candidates may be less suitable for us. However, we do not want to give it a blank check, we want it to continue to act in accordance with our agenda: defense industry, digital, investment… French elected official Marie-Pierre Vedrenne (Renew) explains.
Is there a scratching sound on the far right?
In addition to the Greens to counter defections from the centrist coalition, Ursula von der Leyen can also count on some of the 78 elected officials from the far-right ECR group, which is linked to Italian leader Giorgia Meloni. Czech Prime Minister Peter Fiala called on the elected representatives of the tribe for support. On the other hand, another far-right group, European Patriots, which unites the National Rally (RN) and Hungarian Fidesz, remains excluded from any potential majority.
The fact remains that any openness to the ECR has proven to be a red line for liberals, socialists and green parties, who have called for the establishment of “Pro-democracy, pro-EU parties hold a stable majority” There is no extreme right.
Therefore, Ursula von der Leyen “It is the most likely scenario that 30 to 40 votes might be gained from the Greens and regarding 20 from the ECR, which would be enough to largely compensate for the loss of the three groups (the middle majority),” Calculate the MEP for the familiar balance. And reconcile: “Obviously, everything will be decided by a few dozen votes.”
The same was true in 2019. Candidate von der Leyen was only nine votes ahead of the minimum number of votes needed to obtain an absolute majority, a total of 383 votes. The then German Defense Minister became the first woman to serve as the head of the European Executive. And the first German woman in 52 years.
Don’t burn your wings
If the current European Commission President needs to grab votes everywhere, please be careful not to “Spreading yourself too thin by promising something to everyone without fully satisfying them” Alberto Alemanno, a professor at HEC Paris, warned that every delegation should do the same.
“The unprecedented veto vote will demonstrate the democratic nature of the EU’s nascent parliamentary system, where candidates for the presidency of the European Commission must represent a majority capable of formulating a clear set of common policies.” He believes it.
Another uncertainty for Ursula von der Leyen: the impact of the EU Court judgment, published this Wednesday, on her image. The latter points in particular to the lack of transparency of Brussels in negotiating with laboratories on behalf of its Member States for the purchase of anti-corona vaccines. Against the background of this incident, the President of the Commission has sparked controversy for exchanging text messages with the CEO of Pfizer, one of these laboratories. The agency has always refused to reveal the text of its content, which has attracted criticism and fueled various theories. It will be seen whether this incident will affect the balance of MEPs when they vote.
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