2023-09-15 19:51:38
[Article mis à jour le 15/09/2023 à 23:35]
Radio silence at the top of the State. While the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) submitted a report to the executive on the real costs of producing EDF’s nuclear electricity this Wednesday, September 13, no conclusions were made public. When questioned, the energy policeman refers to the government… which simply does not respond to requests.
However, originally, the CRE was to present a summary of this report during its back-to-school meeting. But this took place on Thursday, and on this subject, there was total silence. “ We have returned this work to the government. I can hardly go further today », cut short its president, Emmanuelle Wargon. And this, while France is currently negotiating, in Brussels and Strasbourg, the future existing nuclear regulation model, which will have to be decided in broad terms by the end of the year.
Sales price close to 100 euros per MWh
Because for the French State, as for EDF and consumers elsewhere, the stakes are immense. In fact, this involves finding the successor to ARENH (Regulated Access to Historic Nuclear Electricity), a mechanism which has required EDF since 2011 to sell part of its production at a price of 42 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). ), in order to allow the French to benefit from the “rent” of nuclear power. However, it is no longer a secret: in recent years, the production costs of the atomic park have increased significantly, reaching a level well above 42 euros per MWh. But to what level exactly?
“In the midst of a discussion on the future of ARENH, the government probably does not want the estimate of production costs by the CRE to leak, and for the new figures to give rise to controversies,” estimates a person familiar with the matter.
According to our information, EDF, which does not intend to sell its MWh at cost price in order to free up margins to invest in the extension and renewal of its fleet, is in any case banking on a sales price of less than 100 euros per MWh, but close to this amount. However, it is difficult, without accessing the CRE’s conclusions, to know what share of production costs is in this overall price proposed by the energy company.
Especially since there are different methods to calculate them. In this case, the document provided by the CRE is an update of an already very confidential September 2020 report, which estimated the production cost at 48.36 euros per MWh, or five euros less than that given by EDF at the time, then reported Context.
However, this was a so-called “accounting” cost, that is to say one which did not take into account the investment expenditure to be made over the life of the reactors. For his part, the Court of Auditors estimated in 2013 that by integrating these necessary investments into the average production cost of the 19 French nuclear power plants (economic current cost), this rose to 59.80 euros per MWh. This is a figure up 20.6% compared to the amount calculated in 2010 (49.5 euros per MWh). In September 2021, in a new reportthe financial jurisdiction established this time that the cost of the MWh compared to the 2019 production amounted to 64.8 euros per MWh.
« In terms of economic production costs, we will probably be around 60-70 euros per MWh, and around 90 euros per MWh for the selling price. », Slips a former EDF executive who requested anonymity.
Nuclear prices: the race once morest time for EDF and the French state
Pharaonic investments
Thus, if the cost of electricity from EDF’s fleet has skyrocketed, it is in particular because it is now necessary to include the costs of the Grand Carénage, this vast program to extend existing installations as much as possible, estimated at 100 billion euros (75 billion in investments and 25 billion for operations).
“When the ARENH was set up more than ten years ago, the amount of 42 euros per MWh referred to the accounting cost to which nuclear power accrued to EDF, in the absence of the Grand Carénage. There were no new investments outside the Flamanville EPR, therefore no reason to incorporate margins and sharply increase the price of nuclear electricity. But all that has changed,” explains economist Jacques Percebois, who sat on the famous Champsaur Commission of 2009, at the origin of the establishment of regulated access to nuclear energy, to La Tribune.
However, in the report of the Court of Auditors published in September 2021 on the costs of the energy system, the financial jurisdiction estimates that “ the cost of extending the lifespan [des centrales, ndlr] can be estimated at a minimum of 35 euros (in 2015) per MWh “. That is, with inflation, around 40 euros today. And to add that “ past investments must be added which have not yet been completely amortized and must still be remunerated to obtain the full future cost of producing existing nuclear power ».
Furthermore, the question of whether or not to include part of the future expenses for the renewal of the fleet in the cost price of historic power plants arises, while the construction of the first 6 EPR2s wanted by Emmanuel Macron should cost between 52 and 56 billion euros, according to a report published last year by the government. In any case, this is the option favored by EDF, which is counting on a rotation of cashflows released by its existing facilities in order to prepare for the future. Especially since the electricity generated by future reactors promises to be expensive, with estimates between 80 and 100 euros per MWh.
The impact of production cuts
Finally, the low level of nuclear production observed in recent years mechanically increases the cost price of this energy source. And for good reason, while in 2015, French power plants generated 420 terawatt hours (TWh), it was only 279 TWh last year, and 330 TWh at most this year, according to the energy company’s forecasts. The cause, in particular: a stress corrosion defect identified at the end of 2021 in several reactors, forcing it to control all of the installations, as well as prolonged shutdowns of units linked to the Grand Carénage examinations.
“The cost at the plant’s output is the sum of expenses divided by the quantity of kWh produced. Logically, if this quantity decreases, the cost increases. The interest of an electrician is therefore that his power plants are operating at full capacity, to spread the fixed costs over a large number of kWh,” explains a specialist.
“The price of electricity will not increase by more than 10% on February 1,” assures Agnès Pannier-Runacher
Energy too expensive?
So, does all this call into question the economic interest of nuclear power in France? To compare its cost to that of renewable energies, in any case, it is better to take the complete system into account. Because if MWh of wind and solar power may, at first glance, seem cheaper at the outlet, the staggering costs linked to the management of their intermittency and their connection, in particular, can quickly reverse the equation. For the electricity transmission network manager RTE, these additional costs will also be “ more important in scenarios with a very high share of renewable energies ».
“The complete cost of an electricity mix does not result from the simple addition of the production costs of each sector present, but must integrate the costs of the electricity system as a whole, and in particular the costs linked to the dimensioning of the electricity network or even those linked to the need for a permanent balance between supply and demand (cost of storage, flexibility of demand, etc.)”, points out the Court of Auditors in its 2021 report.
Electric network: 96 billion euros, these hidden (and colossal) costs of the energy transition
However, the increase in the cost of nuclear power now seems undeniable. In these conditions, ” better identification of expenses linked to [sa] extension would make it possible to account for the relevance of such an extension in relation to the development of new means of production », adds the Court of Auditors in the above-mentioned report. It therefore remains to be seen what the CRE says.
Why the future electricity mix will cost less by relaunching nuclear power, according to RTE
1694820965
#Nuclear #costs #strange #silence #State
