2024-09-13 15:01:10
Cases of dengue fever and chikungunya have increased in recent years in mainland France: In 2022, there were 66 cases of indigenous dengue feverthat is, people who have been infected locally, which is as many as the total number of indigenous cases during the previous ten years. Dengue, like chikungunya or Zika, is an arbovirosis, that is, a disease caused by a virus transmitted by arthropod vectors, in this case mosquitoes.
At the request of the Directorate General for Health, ANSES conducted an expert assessment to estimate the probability of outbreaks of mosquito-borne arbovirosis in mainland France, as well as their health, social and economic impacts. In view of the increase in dengue cases in recent years, the expert assessment focused on viruses transmitted by the tiger mosquito. It is based on consultation with field stakeholders, as well as a review of the literature.
A fairly high risk of an arbovirosis epidemic in the next five years
Table of Contents
- 1 A fairly high risk of an arbovirosis epidemic in the next five years
- 2 Risk of saturation of the vector control system
- 3 Risk of strain on the health system in the event of a major epidemic
- 4 Economic impacts and the worsening of social inequalities
- 5 Dengue fever France map
- 6 Dengue fever France 2024
Table of Contents
Until now, indigenous cases of viruses transmitted by the tiger mosquito in France have been localized outbreaks, in which it has always been possible to trace the origin of the contaminations. At present, experts estimate that an epidemic of arbovirosis, all viruses combined, has a probability of occurring between 6 and 7 on a scale of 0 to 9 in the next five years. An epidemic occurs when it is not possible to link all infected people to a single outbreak. This means that transmissions escape the control system. “, explains Émeline Barrès, from the Risk Assessment Department at ANSES, one of the two coordinators of the expertise.
The occurrence of an epidemic depends on many factors such as: the presence of the tiger mosquito in the territory, climatic conditions favorable to their reproduction (in particular the accumulation of hot days over a given period and precipitation), the arrival of infected people from areas where the viruses circulate, as well as the effectiveness of measures to combat tiger mosquitoes and the transmission of viruses.
Risk of saturation of the vector control system
In the event of an epidemic, the means of prevention and control of arboviruses could quickly become saturated: ” Some of the stakeholders involved in vector monitoring and control that we interviewed during the assessment told us that they would have been overwhelmed if additional cases had occurred in recent years. ” says Véronique Raimond, health economist in the Social Sciences, Economy and Society Department of ANSES, the other coordinator of the expertise.
The management of cases of arboviruses, whether imported or indigenous, requires significant material, financial and human resources. Surveillance and control protocols require, on the one hand, tracing all contacts of the infected person over the previous 10 days and, on the other hand, monitoring the places visited by the patient in order to eliminate the tiger mosquitoes present. The increase in the number of cases with current means would lead to a deterioration in the quality of operations, but also in working conditions people involved in surveillance. In this situation, prioritization would be necessary. Anses published an opinion in March 2024 to propose criteria for prioritizing vector control actions.
The Agency therefore recommends to adapt the means to the needs prevention, monitoring and control of arboviruses. It also recommends the establishment of an interministerial plan to combat these diseases in order to better identify and coordinate the actors involved, including the mobilization of the population.
Risk of strain on the health system in the event of a major epidemic
Experts believe that theThe health system would be under strain in the event of a major epidemicthat is, if many cases occur over a wider area. There is also a risk of saturation if this epidemic coincides with another, as was the case in the Antilles in 2020, where a dengue epidemic occurred at the same time as that of Covid-19. The risk may also exist if the provision of care, in particular general practitioners and emergency services, is already saturated, as may be the case during the mosquito’s period of activity.
In order to better anticipate the consequences of an arbovirosis epidemic in France, the promotion of the experiences of overseas departments and regions must be strengthenedExperts also stress the importance of training health workers to understand the risk factors and warning signs of severe forms of arbovirosis.
While it is unlikely that an arbovirus epidemic in France would have a major impact on the global economy, some sectors could be weakenedTourism is likely to be the main sector affected in the event of circulation of an arbovirus, even on a small scale, with a reduction in the number of visitors to the areas concerned.
Furthermore, epidemics are known to worsen social inequalitiesIn the event of an arbovirosis epidemic, ANSES calls on the authorities to be vigilant so that the most disadvantaged populations have access to information, means of prevention and care.
In order to encourage everyone to get involved in vector control and disease prevention actions, the Agency finally recommends that citizens and all stakeholders concerned be associated with the construction of strategies to combat arboviruses at the territorial level.
Furthermore, since the presence of the tiger mosquito is encouraged by climate change and rising temperatures, the fight against arboviruses must be part of a broader approach to combating climate change and other global changes.
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Dengue fever France map
Dengue Fever and Chikungunya: A Growing Concern in Mainland France
In recent years, cases of dengue fever and chikungunya have been on the rise in mainland France. According to reports, 2022 saw a significant increase in indigenous dengue fever cases, with a total of 66 cases reported, matching the total number of cases from the previous ten years combined [[3]]. These diseases, classified as arbovirosis, are caused by viruses transmitted by arthropod vectors, specifically mosquitoes.
The Risk of an Epidemic
Experts estimate that an arbovirosis epidemic, encompassing all viruses combined, has a probability of occurring between 6 and 7 on a scale of 0 to 9 in the next five years [[3]]. This means that transmissions could escape the control system, leading to widespread outbreaks. The occurrence of an epidemic depends on various factors, including the presence of the tiger mosquito in the territory, favorable climatic conditions, the arrival of infected people from areas where the viruses circulate, and the effectiveness of measures to combat tiger mosquitoes and the transmission of viruses.
The Tiger Mosquito: A Growing Presence in France
The tiger mosquito, a primary vector of arboviruses, has been steadily expanding its presence in France. As of 2024, it has been permanently established in 78 departments, posing a significant threat to public health [[2]].
Consequences of an Epidemic
In the event of an epidemic, the means of prevention and control of arboviruses could quickly become saturated, leading to a deterioration in the quality of operations and working conditions for those involved in surveillance. The management of cases requires significant material, financial, and human resources, and prioritization would be necessary to maintain effective control measures.
Risk of Strain on the Health System
Experts believe that the health system would be under strain in the event of a major epidemic, with a high risk of saturation if the epidemic coincides with another health crisis, as seen in the Antilles in 2020. Training health workers to understand the risk factors and warning signs of severe forms of arbovirosis is crucial to mitigating the impact of an epidemic.
Economic Impacts and Social Inequalities
While an arbovirus epidemic in France is unlikely to have a major impact on the global economy, certain sectors, such as tourism, may be affected, leading to a reduction in visitors to the areas concerned. Moreover, epidemics are known to worsen social inequalities, making it essential for authorities to ensure that the most disadvantaged populations have access to information, means of prevention, and care.
Recommendations
To combat the growing threat of arboviruses in France, ANSES recommends adapting means to needs, establishing an interministerial plan to combat these diseases, and promoting the experiences of overseas departments and regions to better anticipate the consequences of an arbovirosis epidemic. By taking proactive measures, France can mitigate the impact of these diseases and protect its citizens.
References:
Keyword optimization: dengue fever, chikungunya, arbovirosis, tiger mosquito, France, epidemic, public health, surveillance, vector control, health system, economic impacts, social inequalities.
Dengue fever France 2024
Dengue Fever and Chikungunya on the Rise in France: Experts Warn of Epidemic Risk
France is bracing itself for a potential wave of mosquito-borne infections, including dengue fever and chikungunya, which have been increasing in recent years [1]. According to the latest reports, France has seen a surge in imported cases of dengue, with over 1,649 cases reported in mainland France, mostly originating from French overseas territories such as Guadeloupe [2]. The country is also experiencing a record rise in dengue cases ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games [3].
A Fairly High Risk of an Arbovirosis Epidemic in the Next Five Years
Experts estimate that France has a high risk of experiencing an epidemic of arbovirosis, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, in the next five years. The probability of an epidemic occurring has been rated between 6 and 7 on a scale of 0 to 9. An epidemic is defined as a situation where transmissions escape the control system, and it is no longer possible to link all infected people to a single outbreak.
Risk Factors for an Epidemic
Several factors contribute to the risk of an epidemic, including the presence of the tiger mosquito in the territory, favorable climatic conditions, the arrival of infected people from areas where the viruses circulate, and the effectiveness of measures to combat tiger mosquitoes and the transmission of viruses.
Risk of Saturation of the Vector Control System
In the event of an epidemic, the means of prevention and control of arboviruses could quickly become saturated. Surveillance and control protocols require significant material, financial, and human resources. The increase in the number of cases with current means would lead to a deterioration in the quality of operations, as well as working conditions for people involved in surveillance.
Risk of Strain on the Health System in the Event of a Major Epidemic
Experts believe that the health system would be under strain in the event of a major epidemic, with many cases occurring over a wider area. There is also a risk