Unusually much at stake in the vice-presidential debate

The vice presidential debate in New York on Tuesday evening US time is currently the last opportunity voters have to see the candidates in debate, as vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have not agreed to hold a new debate between themselves.

In what is already an extraordinary election campaign, the vice-presidential candidates can thus play an extraordinarily large role. Historically, the debate moves very few voters, but this year several media write that it may be different. The election is likely to be so close that any chance of getting a single voter to change their mind is extremely important.

Grandfather and bulldog

Both 40-year-old JD Vance and 60-year-old Tim Walz present themselves as the voice of average voters in the Midwest – the belt of states from Pennsylvania in the east to Nebraska in the west where presidential elections are won or lost.

Walz is governor of Minnesota, while Vance is a senator from Ohio. Both have been in the military and present themselves as popular candidates from the working class. But there the similarities end.

Where Walz presents himself as a cozy grandfather who has experience as a football coach, Vance is considerably more confrontational and combative.

– JD Vance is a bulldog. What defines him is in many ways his aggressive media style, says Professor Hilmar Mjelde at the University of Western Norway.

Controversial Republican

Among other things, Vance’s confrontational style has led him to spearhead the false claims that Haitian immigrants in Ohio are abducting and eating pets – claims that have led to bomb threats against a number of public buildings in the city of Springfield. However, it has also led to him being controversial – according to Fivethirtyeight on average, only 34.7 per cent of polled voters have a favorable impression of him.

– He works for what Trump emphasizes, which is to be aggressive and clever on TV and in debates. He has also contributed to setting the agenda in the election campaign, although not necessarily to his own advantage. But for Trump, all PR is good PR, says Mjelde.

Inexperienced Democrat

Walz, on the other hand, is better liked but has less experience on the national stage. He became famous when he called Trump and his supporters “just weirdos” on national television. Several Democrats have tried to play down the expectations for him, and Senator and party colleague Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota thinks he is “not a debater type.” Mjelde will not attach too much weight to that.

– I don’t think it will be a rough match, because Walz should not be underestimated either. I suspect Walz of strategically lowering expectations for himself. Then it also takes less to make a good impression.

Spare wheel

The professor points out that the vice president acts as a kind of “spare wheel” in American politics, and that it is important for voters to see if they are ready to take over the presidency if necessary. No less than nine presidents have had to do this in the middle of an election term, most recently Gerald Ford after Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974.

– 70 million watched the debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin in 2008. If voters are unsure about the vice-presidential candidate, they take an interest in the debate, especially if the presidential candidate is old, he says.

– No Jack Kennedy

A moment from the vice presidential debates that is still remembered in American politics is the confrontation between Republican Dan Quayle and Democrat Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Quayle tried to counter claims that he was inexperienced by saying that he had as long a tenure in Congress as John F. Kennedy had when he became president.

– Senator, I sat (in Congress) with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy, Bentsen replied in a calm but serious tone.

Without that helping. Quayle became vice president after a landslide victory for him and George HW Bush.