Until when will AI be released? Will the Chinese economy survive?

2023-06-20 15:28:59

On the 20th, the New York stock market started bearishly following the previous day’s holiday. Treasury yields fell slightly, while oil, gold and commodities fell. The market is also paying attention to the remarks of the US central bank (Fed) officials scheduled one following another this week.

The housing market indicators released on the day appeared to be better than expected. The number of housing starts in May increased by 21.7% to 1.63 million. Housing permits also recorded 1.49 million, up 5.2% from the previous month. Analysts say that the housing market is a leading indicator of the economy, giving weight to economic optimism.

There is also a view that expectations that it will be difficult to raise interest rates further have been reflected in the housing market in advance. The NAHB housing market index announced the previous day was also counted positively at 55, exceeding the expected 51. This is the most optimistic figure since July last year. After US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln’s visit to China last weekend, interest in follow-up measures also gathered. It is expected that the frozen US-China relationship will be able to recover as high-level communication channels are strengthened. President Xi Jinping said, “China respects the interests of the United States and does not try to challenge or replace the United States. In the same vein, the United States should respect China.”

However, concerns grew as news spread that China was negotiating with Cuba on the construction of facilities for joint military exercises. Analysts say that if China agrees to build the facility, the military conflict with the United States might escalate.

There have been a number of cautious reports on the stock outlook in the market. Morgan Stanley released an analysis saying that companies’ profits are expected to decline following the Producer Price Index (PPI) falls short of expectations. It is an opinion that even the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) is difficult to prevent margin pressure. JP Morgan also saw that the rising trend of growth numbers might put pressure on the stock rally in the second half of the year.

Barclays has released an analysis that resuming student loan payments might reduce US consumption by $15.8 billion. It is a view that apparel stocks such as American Eagle, Urban Outfitters, and Victoria’s Secret might be hit.

Among stocks, Alibaba (BABA), which announced a management change, showed weakness. Cai Chongxin, vice chairman of Alibaba Group, took the position of chairman in September, and Wu Yongming, the new CEO of Alibaba, will lead the management. He will maintain the management of Taobao and Tmall, and the existing chairman, CEO Zhang Yong, will focus on Alibaba Cloud.

Disney and Discovery, which released new animations last weekend, also performed disappointingly. Warner Bros. movie ‘The Flash’ made $64.2 million over the holiday season, and Disney’s ‘Elemental’ also drew smaller audiences than expected.

Among pharmaceutical stocks, Novo Nordisk’s share price was weak due to delays in expanding production of Wegobi. Novo Nordisk announced that production in developing countries would be delayed due to difficulties meeting US demand. DyTherapeutics’ share price soared on the news of Eli Lilly’s acquisition. Eli Lilly said it would acquire the company for $48 per share or $2.4 billion in cash.

On Wall Street, positive investment opinions came out for Philip Morris, US Foods, AVIS, and Baidu. All stocks were strong in the early hours of the day.

New York = Correspondent Jeong So-ram ram@hankyung.com

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