The formation of the government is difficult, and Hezbollah will not fight for its birth
(news analysis)
Lebanon is preparing to enter a new political phase, as soon as the constitutional deadline comes into effect on the first of next September, to elect a new President of the Republic, which is still shrouded in ambiguity and uncertainty, as a result of the reluctance of those concerned with the presidential elections to move, not because of the absence of candidates from the political scene. not only, but because the big electorate; Both at the regional and international levels, they have not yet decided to drop their weight to show the image of the strong candidates to be in the race for the presidency. Because it is not permissible to ignore external factors, and to treat this right as Lebanese, and the final decision in electing the president is up to the parliamentary blocs.
It seems that the big voters, through their representatives in Lebanon, whether they were ambassadors accredited to it or delegates on special missions, are still in the process of exploring the political atmosphere surrounding the presidential elections, and they meet away from the limelight the largest number of candidates, at their request, to find out Their opinions, without any of them obtaining guarantees that would allow him to act as if he would bear the title of His Excellency the President, succeeding the current President Michel Aoun.
In this context, a prominent political source says that the presidential elections will not be isolated from the developments taking place in the region, and that their readings should be derived from what they will lead to; Whether at the level of negotiations related to the Iranian nuclear file, or with regard to the fate of the US mediation between Lebanon and Israel, regarding the demarcation of the maritime borders between the two countries, and confirms that its success might constitute the obligatory passage for the presidential election to safety.
The political source points out to Asharq Al-Awsat that the American mediation is still ranging from a cold gift to a hot one, in contrast to the positive atmosphere that was heralded by the presidential advisor, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elias Bou Saab, before he decided to return to restraint and stop spreading optimism regarding the arrival. agreement on the demarcation of the maritime boundary.
He believes that the coming weeks, specifically next September, will not suggest that the presidential election has been set on a hot fire. Especially since Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will not initiate the opening of the presidential election session before the last week of September, and he reserves for himself to set the date for its convening, provided that the initiative of the parliamentary blocs precedes it to mobilize its movement, which is still timid and limited to a large extent.
The same source confirms that the presidential candidates are silent, lest they fall victim to name-burning by this or that party, despite the fact that the “Forces for Change” bloc in Parliament is preparing to announce the names of a number of candidates who are seen as non-traditional and do not belong to the system. The ruling and the political class, and he believes that most of the ambassadors have finished collecting their information regarding the candidates, and have sent it to the decision-making centers in their countries, although he did not rule out immediately following the summer holidays that many of these countries would send delegates on their behalf on a mission that goes beyond surveying positions, to draw up a list The names of the candidates they classify as those who will be drawn in the decision chambers from international and regional levels.
And the source confirms that Hezbollah supports securing a safe exit for Aoun from Baabda, out of respect for the constitutional principles. Mirna Al-Shalouhi, on the other hand, is anticipating the reactions of Representative Gebran Bassil, who will not remain silent until the end of Aoun’s term.
The same source warns that Bassil will resort to creating tensions in order to blackmail the parties concerned with electing the president, including the major voters in the region and the international community. He has no other item on his agenda than to re-polish Bassil’s image, in the hope of including his name on the list of local voters.
It is advised not to engage in an argument with Aoun and Bassil; Because they want to plunge the country into roving political clashes, and he says that there is a need to cut the constitutional deadline for electing the president at the lowest political cost; Because Aoun today will be another following his departure from Baabda, because he lacks the political papers that prevent him from continuing his campaigns of intimidation and extortion.
The same source believes that there is no need to provide free services to Aoun and Basil, and to be dragged into their court, and therefore it is better to ignore them; Because Bassil has no more tools in his job than to take the country to more crisis. This explains his uncle’s insistence on forming a government of 30 ministers, even though he realizes that such a government will not see the light of day, and that his ally “Hezbollah” is distancing himself from engaging in a previously fallen political war, intended to meet Basil’s ambitions.
He confirms that Aoun and Bassil are not in the process of floating the caretaker government by replacing others with Ministers Amin Salam and Essam Sharaf El-Din, and reveals that President Mikati withdrew from circulation the change of Energy Minister Walid Fayyad, and it is said that not changing him is due to the fact that he does not want to exempt the “National Movement” from holding him. Responsibility for the deterioration of the electricity sector, which currently plunges the country into complete darkness, in the absence of temporary or permanent solutions, in addition to blocking Aoun’s claim for an alternative ministry.
It is also reported that Aoun did not take Mikati’s advice, regardless of his demand for an expanded government; Because there is a difficulty in forming it on the one hand, and in marketing it at home on the other hand, in addition to that it will constitute an embarrassment for Lebanon under the pretext that the expanded government is intended to manage the presidential vacuum, instead of activating efforts to achieve the presidential elections on time, to avoid being drawn into a clash with society. An international who insists on achieving it without hesitation.
Therefore, there is no longer an opportunity to form an expanded government or float the current government, and that the expected meeting between Mikati and Aoun depends on the latter’s response to Mikati’s proposal to float the government, although there are those who rule out activating the government at least in the foreseeable future, unless there are developments outside expectations. She reconsidered her flotation before Aoun left Baabda.
Finally, the presidential statement issued by the media department in Baabda is but a sample of the unprecedented tensions that Bassil will provoke in the period between the start of the constitutional deadline for electing the president and Aoun’s departure from Baabda.