“Unprecedented path”, how will it end between Macron and Le Pen –

The absolute majority for the Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella is a mirage, but governing without the right will be impossible. Brice Teinturier, a pollster for the Ipsos institute in France, describes the situation in view of the run-off elections in this way. The left and the center are barricading themselves with “withdrawal”, causing the weaker candidates to withdraw. “The triangular elections favored the Rassemblement National, because it had come out on top in the first round in numerous constituencies. The more candidates withdraw, the less likely the RN is to have an absolute majority. What can already be said is that the day after the first round, with 306 triangular votes, the RN was in an excellent position to have a majority that was if not absolute, certainly very large in the new Parliament; since there were so many withdrawals (218), this possibility should be completely ruled out”, the pollster explains to the Corriere.

However, “a majority without the Rassemblement National seems very difficult to me today”, explains Teinturier who foresees for France “an unprecedented path – which you know in Italy – in which it will not be possible to find a government majority”.

Bardella’s party and its allies “have reached the historic result of 33.15 percent of preferences, that is ten million votes against the 4 of the last legislative elections of 2022. So they are certainly the great beneficiaries of this election. But the high turnout, at 66 percent, did not favor them, it did not go in their direction. The small additional push was given by the youngest – explains the pollster – who preferred the left”. And Emmnuel Macron? Where did his votes go? “Compared to the first round of the last Presidential elections, about 14 percent went to the New Popular Front of the left; 15 percent to Les Républicains; 8 percent to RN; and more than half voted again for Ensemble. Compared to the European elections, however, the president’s party has recovered votes, drawing from socialists, ecologists and republicans”, are the flows described by the expert awaiting the day of truth, Sunday 7 July.