Foreign media reported that Russia has asked Beijing to provide military support, including surface-to-air missiles, to help in the war in Ukraine, but experts say Beijing is more likely to provide bullets and rations than fighter jets and tanks.
Demetri Sevastopulo, a reporter from the British “Financial Times”, pointed out on the 14th that Russia has requested Beijing to provide five major armaments, including surface-to-air missiles, drones, armored vehicles, transport vehicles, and artificial intelligence-related equipment. Foreign media also quoted unnamed U.S. officials as saying that Beijing has sent signals that it intends to provide Moscow with military and economic assistance.
How will Beijing provide military aid to Russia? The Associated Press quoted experts as saying that China is more likely to provide bullets and rations than fighter jets and tanks.
Drew Thompson, a former U.S. defense official now at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, said the mainland may want to avoid pushing “high-profile or expensive arms sales” to Russia during the conflict to avoid international sanctions, saying Beijing was more likely Provide accessories, consumables, ammunition and dual-use items that do not violate sanctions and do not trigger international retaliation.
Tang Anzhu said that the Russian military helicopter may have used up its own flares when countering the “Stinger” and other portable short-range missiles. If it is compatible with the Russian military system, it is conceivable that Beijing will sell some Russian flares. In addition, the mainland It may also share intelligence and investigative reports with Russia.
Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank, said any aid from the mainland could be “very basic things” because of Washington’s warnings, such as giving Soldiers’ rations, he said Moscow would find it nearly impossible to integrate mainland armaments into its own armed forces in such a short time. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned Beijing not to provide Russian military assistance when he met Yang Jiechi, director of the Office of the China Central Foreign Affairs Commission, in Rome on the 14th.
■Will Beijing give military aid to Russia?
Even if the U.S. has intelligence that suggests the mainland is interested in providing Moscow with military and economic aid, Chinese and foreign experts say there are still many factors that prevent Beijing from assisting Russia, one of which is that helping Russia is not good-looking.
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said the mainland would be very careful not to allow its aid and other assistance to be used on the Ukrainian battlefield. He added that the mainland has no incentive to provide any assistance in Russia’s operations against Ukraine.
Roger Wen also pointed out that Beijing’s assistance to Moscow “has no obvious benefit”, and that the weakening of Russia’s power is beneficial to the mainland’s strategic and economic advantages.
In response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, mainland officials have previously stated that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all countries should be respected. Li Xin, director of the Eurasian Institute of the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said that Russia’s military operations in Ukraine were essentially an invasion, “China will always Arms will not be provided to help one country attack another sovereign country, and it is not in accordance with international law.”
Tang Anzhu pointed out that Beijing also does not want the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to deteriorate further, or to be seen as a common belligerent involved in the conflict, so any support from Beijing will be “prudent and carefully calibrated”.