2023-07-14 14:32:15
(Washington) Consumer confidence remains positively oriented in the United States, continuing the momentum of June, at the highest level since September 2021, mainly due to the slowdown in inflation and the stability of the labor market .
Posted on July 14
The index measuring this confidence increased by 12.7% compared to June to settle at 72.6 points, according to the preliminary estimate carried out by the University of Michigan published on Friday.
This estimate largely exceeds the expectations of analysts, who envisaged a more modest increase to 65.6 points, according to the consensus published by briefing.com, just one point more than its level in June (64.4 points).
“All the components of the index have improved significantly, in particular the long-term and short-term business climate”, detailed Joanna Hsu, director of the survey, quoted in the press release.
An increase which also concerns “all demographic groups, with the exception of consumers with the lowest incomes”, she added.
US consumer confidence is now “halfway between its all-time low, reached in June 2022, and the level seen before the pandemic”.
This improvement in confidence should “be supported by easing price pressure and lead to higher spending in the short term,” HFE chief economist Rubeela Farroqi said in a note.
As for inflation, it is expected around 3.4% by the end of the year, slightly up on June expectations (3.3%).
The CPI inflation index, from which pensions are calculated, was down sharply in June, at 3%, according to data published Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor.
The other inflation index, PCE, on which the Federal Reserve relies to decide its monetary policy orientations, will be published at the end of the month, just following the next Fed meeting, scheduled for 25 and 26 July.
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