2024-08-17 08:00:00
<南海海槽臨時資訊詢問③>
The government issued a special warning of “Beware of Major Earthquakes” in response to the Nankai Trough earthquake. The warning ended at 5 pm on August 15. How did this system of producing self-regulating emotions come about? Tokyo News and Society reporter Ozawa Keiichi continued to question the relationship between science and politics during the Nankai Trough earthquake, and won the Kikuchi Hiroshi Prize for his book “The Truth about the Nankai Trough Earthquake.” (This is the last of all three episodes)
◆How “Temporary Message” was born
This temporary information system was created to replace the “warning statements” based on earthquake predictions in the Major Earthquake Special Measures Act (Major Earthquake Act). If you understand the situation, you can clearly see the intentions of the “earthquake villagers” composed of bureaucrats, local governments, politicians and researchers, who still want to safeguard their vested interests after predicting the impossibility.
In 1978, the “Major Earthquake Law” was formulated in response to the East China Sea earthquake theory. When signs of a Tokai earthquake are discovered, experts will convene a review committee. If it is determined that the Tokai earthquake may occur, the Prime Minister will issue a “warning statement” to suspend Shinkansen trains, close schools and department stores, etc., and prevent the occurrence of earthquakes.
East China Sea Earthquake TheoryThe earthquake theory was proposed in 1976 by Kobe University Emeritus Professor Katsuhiko Ishibashi (then an assistant at the Faculty of Science at the University of Tokyo), who said, “It would not be surprising if a major earthquake occurred in Japan.” Suruga Bay tomorrow. In response to this situation, the “Law on Special Measures in Response to Severe Earthquakes” (“Major Earthquake Law”) was promulgated in 1978. This law is based on earthquake prediction. A system was established whereby the Prime Minister would issue a mandatory “warning statement” if signs of an earthquake in the East China Sea were observed.
With the promulgation of this law, earthquake prediction became a national project, greatly enriching the work of relevant ministries and seismologists. Many observation instruments were installed around the epicenter of the Tokai Earthquake, and being selected as a member of the review committee means success as a seismologist.
◆Among the continuing contradictions in the Great Earthquake Law
However, after the Great Hanshin Earthquake in 1995, criticism of earthquake prediction increased, and the focus seemed to shift to “earthquake prediction” based on statistical predictions. But upon closer inspection, it turns out that they just changed the sign.
Although earthquakes cannot be predicted, the Major Earthquake Law has been in place for more than 40 years. When the law came under review in 2016, newspaper editorials and other publications called for its repeal because of its contradictions.
However, the Major Earthquake Act was not repealed, and instead of issuing a warning statement, temporary information was produced. The government basically only provides information, and local governments, businesses and individuals are responsible for taking their own disaster prevention measures. The government has completely given up on countermeasures.
◆In the name of evading litigation…
Why did things take such a mysterious turn? Yoshiaki Kawada, a distinguished professor at the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation at Kansai University who was invited by the government in 2016 but was rejected, told this newspaper about the situation in 2023.
Looking back, Kawada said, “The purpose of the government review may have been to avoid litigation.” The framework of the major earthquake law was supposed to be able to predict earthquakes. Mr. Kawada said: “Although it can be predicted, if a Nankai Trough earthquake suddenly occurs without any prediction information and evacuation centers and emergency rescue operations are disrupted, the government’s inaction will be blamed on the failure to predict.” “This may raise questions about this,” he said.
“Even considering the scale of the (2016) Kumamoto earthquake, our response was insufficient. We are well aware that if the expected Nankai Trough earthquake occurs, there will be more trouble.”
◆ “The earthquake village structure respecting vested interests has been preserved.”
Therefore, Mr. Kawada talked with the Cabinet Office Disaster Prevention Advisor and advised him that “we must accept the fact that the Tokai Earthquake cannot be predicted.” Ultimately, the government’s proposal was not to repeal the major earthquake law but to leave interim information in place rather than a warning statement. “I declined to chair the committee because I believed that in order to maintain the forecasting system, we should not issue ad hoc information that had no scientific basis,” he recalled.
Why must the government avoid repealing the Earthquakes Act? Mr. Kawada said, “The Great Earthquake Law was enacted by members of the Diet, but the policymakers at that time are no longer here, and the current directors and advisors will bear the brunt. They will be transferred in two years,” so we should be able to hold on until then .
At 5:31 pm on August 8, 2024, the Japan Meteorological Agency held a special assessment review meeting to investigate the relationship between earthquakes with an intensity of less than 6 in southern Miyazaki Prefecture and the Nankai Trough earthquake.
By retaining the major earthquake law, every government agency can secure budgets and personnel indefinitely, according to science journalist Torujiro, who wrote “130 Years of Earthquake Prediction in Japan” and is an influential seismologist on the national committee. Pointing them out can influence budget allocations.
“The Earthquake Law has never been repealed in the first place. This maintains the structure of earthquake villages, in which disaster prevention organizations and influential researchers respect each other’s vested interests.”
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