Unexpected Increase in Crude Oil Stocks Sends Prices Plummeting: Analysis and Impact on Market

2024-01-31 16:12:06

Analysts were expecting a contraction of 1.1 million in these stocks, according to a consensus established by the Bloomberg agency, following a massive drop of 9.2 million barrels during the previous period.

Wednesday’s publication weighed on crude oil prices, which were already moving in the red but which fell sharply.

Around 4:00 p.m. GMT, a barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in March fell by 2.21%, to $76.10.

This unexpected increase in stocks comes in particular from the low activity of American refineries, whose utilization rate fell to 82.9%, compared to 85.5% for the week ended January 19, the lowest in a year.

The passage of a cold front, which swept across the United States in mid-January, disrupted part of the extraction and transport of crude oil, particularly in North Dakota, the third largest producer in the country.

The last comparable drop in refinery activity, at the end of December 2022, was already due to a winter storm, Elliott, which had turned the oil industry upside down.

While refining slowed down, production returned to a level close to its cruising speed, following a stall, also following the climatic episode.

The United States pumped 13 million barrels per day during the week in question, compared to only 12.3 million previously.

Furthermore, crude oil exports fell once more (-12%), thus depriving American black gold of part of its outlets and favoring the growth of stocks.

Deliveries of refined products to the American market rebounded (+2.8% over one week), driven by gasoline (+3.3%) and propane (+26.4%), which benefited from increased needs in heating.

This surge in demand allowed gasoline stocks to increase by only 1.1 million barrels, while analysts were counting on 2 million.

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