2023-10-25 11:10:00
3.028 million: this is the number of unemployed people (category A, without activity) in the third quarter in France, excluding Mayotte, according to figures from Dares, the statistical service of the Ministry of Labor, published this Wednesday, October 25. An increase of 0.6%, which represents 17,400 more registrants compared to the previous quarter, when this number had then slightly decreased by 0.2%.
Including reduced activity (categories B and C of Pôle emploi), the number of job seekers is up slightly by 0.2% – 8,800 more registered – and stands at 5.352 million. In detail, the number of category B unemployed, those having exercised a reduced activity of 78 hours maximum per month, is up significantly by 3.1%, with 24,900 more people in this situation. But there are 3.3% fewer unemployed people in category C, having worked less than 78 hours per month.
Young people most affected
Over one year, unemployment nevertheless continues to trend downward in the third quarter, with 120,000 fewer job seekers (-3.8%), compared to summer 2022.
The trends are not the same depending on the age groups, always over a year. The number of job seekers aged under 25 increased by +3.1% over one year, while it decreased by 4% among those aged 25-49 and even by 6.4% among those aged 50. years and older.
This curve also differs depending on the region. The number of job seekers in category A increases by 1.6% in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, by 1.4% in Nouvelle-Aquitaine and by 1.1% in the Grand-Est. It decreased by 0.9% in the overseas departments (excluding Mayotte) and -0.7% in Corsica, while it was stable in Ile-de-France.
The Ministry of Labor specifies that “entrances to Pôle Emploi are increasing” by 0.7%, with “a sharp reduction in layoffs and first entries”. On the other hand, he notes an increase in “end of temporary assignment”, of the “returns from inactivity” and “conventional ruptures”. Finally, “exits from Pôle emploi are decreasing sharply”, by 4.4% with “a sharp reduction in update failures and search stops” (namely in particular the removals from Pôle Emploi and exits from the labor market).
Increase expected for 2023
Dark clouds hover over the French labor market. After the Banque de France, INSEE lowered its employment forecasts for the coming months in mid-October. Statisticians are counting on 133,000 job creations over the year, compared to 175,000 last June, which illustrates the slowing down of activity. Result: the unemployment rate should rise slightly once more to 7.3% of the active population at the end of the year compared to 7.1% in the first quarter of 2023. Last June, economic forecasters were still betting on a stabilization of unemployment at this historic low level.
But, for the moment, it is still early to say that the job market is seriously deteriorating. “At this stage, we must wait a few months before qualifying the situation”underlined Julien Pouget, head of the economic department, questioned by The Tribune. “We can say that it’s a turnaround in December when we make the forecasts for 2024”.
The Banque de France is more pessimistic. According to the institution, unemployment should gradually rise to 7.8% in 2025, remaining however below its pre-Covid level. “Reaching full employment, that is to say going from 7% to less than 5% unemployment, cannot be immediate due to the current slowdown. But it’s realistic in a few years,” estimated its governor, François Villeroy de Galhau, in mid-September.
Reduction for people with disabilities
Some 2.9 million workers aged 15 to 64 had “administrative recognition of a disability” in 2022. Their unemployment rate fell between 2015 and 2022, going from 17.3% to 12% according to another Dares study.
During the first four years of the period studied, i.e. from 2015 to 2019, the unemployment rate of people with disabilities saw a drop of the same magnitude as that of the general population, i.e. -1.9 points. On the other hand, subsequently, the improvement was more marked for people with disabilities, with -3.4 points between 2019 and 2022, compared to -1.1 points for the general population.
This difference is, however, partially misleading, explain the authors of the study, because it hides the fact that the activity rate of disabled people has fallen further: this public being “potentially more sensitive to the health situation”, a number of people affected were able to stop looking for work. Ultimately, the 3.4 points gained between 2019 and 2022 on the unemployment rate come from “half from the increase in employment and half from a behavior of withdrawal from the active population”.
This withdrawal “would however only be temporary” : in the first half of 2023, the activity rate of people with disabilities recovered significantly, by +1.7 points (to 45.4%), compared to +0.1 points for the general population.
(With AFP)
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