2023-11-15 06:46:45
Published on Nov 15, 2023 at 7:46 amUpdated Nov. 15, 2023 at 10:48 a.m.
More than a landing, the start of a turnaround? The unemployment rate, measured according to the International Labor Office, increased by 0.2 points to reach 7.4% of the active population in the third quarter in France (excluding Mayotte), indicated this Wednesday by INSEE. This is the second quarterly increase in a row. It is slightly higher than what the national statistical institute anticipated in its latest economic report (7.3%) even if the unemployment rate remains significantly below its peak in mid-2015 (9.5%). .
In detail, the unemployment rate increased by 0.7 points this summer for 15-24 year olds, to 17.6%, almost its level a year earlier. For those aged 25-49, it increased by 0.2 points over the quarter and by 0.3 points over one year, to 6.7%. Finally, for those aged 50 or over, the unemployment rate is stable over the quarter and over one year, at 5.1%.
Cycle reversal?
This increase brings the number of unemployed to 2.3 million, or 64,000 more between the end of June and the end of September. This is a new sign of the slowdown in the job market following the post-Covid euphoria. For the head of the synthesis and economic situation of the labor market division at INSEE, Yves Jauneau, it is still too early to know if the trend will continue (INSEE will update its forecasts in mid-December). “This is a slight increase following several quarters of relative stability,” he commented, recalling that at 7.4% we are still significantly below the pre-Covid level. .
“We might expect such an increase given the slowdown in the global economy – linked in particular to the tightening of monetary policies – and geopolitical tensions,” reacted the Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt, stressing that the tensions recruitment remains strong in the economy.
Course maintained
This new deterioration leads to questions regarding Emmanuel Macron’s objective of full employment, that is to say an unemployment rate of around 5%, at the end of the five-year term. Especially since the Banque de France and the OFCE in particular are counting on a continued rise in the quarters to come. But for the government there is no question of giving up, quite the contrary. If the trend reversal is confirmed, he would consider additional measures to stay the course, according to several sources.
Just adopted by Parliament, the France Labor bill to reorganize the public employment service will take time to be deployed. Learning continues to progress but at a slower pace.
Within the executive, we are betting a lot on the effects of the pension reform which, mechanically, will increase the employment rate of 60-64 year olds, even if it will always be very difficult for those under 62. and who are unemployed to find a job. This will probably be one of the aspects of the next negotiation on keeping seniors in work for which the social partners are still waiting for the Matignon orientation document.
The subject remains all the more topical as the memorandum of understanding that employers and three unions (CFDT, CFTC and FO) concluded on Friday for the next Unédic convention does not include any incentive measure for resumption of employment for unemployed people over 55.
The initial version of the text on the negotiating table planned to improve the so-called reduced activity system via a smaller deduction from the allowance in the event of resumption of remuneration (from 70% to 50%) for this age group. In the financial table accompanying this version, the measure was supposed to cause 640 million euros in additional spending for the unemployment insurance system from 2024 to 2027, up to 160 million per year.
It finally fell by the wayside, with all the consequences for unemployment insurance of the pension reform – a two-year reduction in the age limits for the duration of compensation in particular – being postponed until the end of the negotiation. on seniors.
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