2023-08-11 12:09:41
In the second quarter, the number of unemployed within the meaning of the International Labor Office (ILO) increased by 20,000 people compared to the previous three months to reach 2.2 million unemployed, according to INSEE statistics published on Friday. Despite this increase, the unemployment rate remained almost stable, at 7.2% of the active population (+0.1 point) in France, excluding Mayotte, this stability being shared by all age groups.
At this level, in line with what the statistical institute had anticipated in mid-June in its last economic report, it remains very close to its lowest level measured since the second quarter of 1982. With 564,000 people on average over the quarter declaring themselves jobless while looking for one for at least a year, the long-term unemployment rate also stood still, at 1.8% of the labor force.
Employment rate of seniors on the rise
Same thing for the employment rate of 15-64 year olds. At 68.6%, it is still at its highest level since 1975. It should be noted, however, that it increased by 0.3 point for 50-64 year olds, to 66.8%, a new high point since 1975. “In particular, the employment rate for 55-64 year olds increased by 0.7 points over the quarter and by 1.6 points over one year”, underlined INSEE, a few weeks before the entry into force of pension reform.
“From all the data published by INSEE, we can conclude that the labor market in France continues to be very solid, reacted Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING. Nevertheless, and despite stronger than expected growth in the second quarter, the trend is rather towards a cooling of the labor market and the unemployment rate seems to have bottomed out. A further decrease in the unemployment rate in the coming months seems unlikely. »
Everything will depend on the comparative evolution of employment and the active population, but also on the comparative evolution of employment and company order books. If INSEE’s provisional estimate of GDP in the second quarter is confirmed, Bercy’s objective of 1% growth in activity in 2023 might be met. The majority of economists, on the contrary, expect a slowdown. Even if caution is called for, the signs that the VAT is running out of steam might prove them right.
Also in its latest economic report, INSEE predicted that the unemployment rate will stagnate at 7.1% of the active population, which should slow down. Without calling into question the objective of full employment by the end of the five-year term. To scratch the 2 points that lead to it, the government is betting on France Travail, the new organization of employment and integration actors, and on the effects of unemployment insurance and pension reforms.
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