Despite the very good figures, caution is still in order. Unemployment insurance accounts, in surplus in 2022 for the first time since 2008, will continue their deleveraging at high speed by 2025. But the great uncertainty that still surrounds the economic situation protects against any euphoria. It is in this climate that Unédic’s financial forecasts were published on Tuesday 21 February. The joint association responsible for managing the scheme thus plans to generate 17.1 billion euros in surpluses over the period 2023-2025. That is 5 billion better than what had been anticipated in October 2022.
The regime has, however, slightly lowered its forecast for 2023, expecting a surplus of 3.8 billion euros, against 4.2 billion forecast in October 2022. “The controlled management of the regime helps to guarantee its solidity to enable it to face a new change in the economic situation, in an uncertain economic and geopolitical context”indicates the note distributed by the services of Unédic.
The situation is favorable for the regime despite economic growth which should be sluggish in 2023 (+0.4% of gross domestic product). Because Unédic’s accounts are driven by inflation which leads to salary increases, and therefore contributions, as well as by an unemployment rate at its lowest since 2008. “We are witnessing a stagnation of growth but the employment situation is improving”, summarized Jean-Eudes Tesson, vice-president (Medef) of Unédic. While the regime expects job creation to stabilize in 2023, it should pick up slightly in 2024 and more strongly (+152,000) in 2025.
Pursue deleveraging
But it is above all the successive reforms of unemployment insurance that have a notable impact on finances. “The rules of the reform which entered into force in 2021 have already produced their essential effects, explained the president (CFDT) of Unédic, Patricia Ferrand. There will be a gradual ramp-up for that of 2023, with strong effects within three years. » Since 1is February, the duration of benefits for newly unemployed people is reduced by 25%. A change that will have no effect on the plan’s accounts in 2023, but which will make it possible to save 3 billion in 2025 and 4.5 billion at cruising speed, from 2027. Savings from the reform of 2019, which entered into force in 2021, are estimated at 2.2 billion euros per year.
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