2024-03-02 20:52:20
Lyudmila Melik sheds tears as she looks at a photo of her fallen husband, Oleksandr, at a photo exhibition commemorating the fallen soldiers displayed near the Ukrainian city hall. Photo = Newsis/AP
February 24th marks the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Prior to this, in 2014, a civil war broke out in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian rebels and Russian troops.
Experts classify the ‘Donbas War (April 12, 2014 – February 15, 2015)’ as the ‘First War’ and Russia’s invasion two years ago as the ‘Second War’. The war in Donbas, which had been in a stalemate, expanded into a full-scale war in February 2022. The ‘Russia-Ukraine War’ will actually be 10 years old this April.
Currently, regarding 20% of Ukraine’s territory, mainly in the eastern and southern regions, is occupied by the Russian military. The Ukrainian military is fighting to regain territory with the support of the United States and NATO member countries, but the front line is deadlocked and the situation is becoming more advantageous to Russia as time goes by.
Putin’s approval rating and economic growth rate rose following the war
Since the start of the ‘second war’ in 2022, not only in Korea but also in the West, Ukraine, the weak, has been portrayed as good, Russia, the aggressor and strong, and Putin as evil.
To hold Russia responsible for the war, the West imposed economic sanctions on Russia, but they had no effect. According to the Russian National Statistical Office (ROSSTAT), Russia’s quarterly real GDP growth rate was ▲3.0% (1st quarter of 2022) ▲-4.5% (2nd quarter) ▲-3.5% (3rd quarter) ▲-2.7% (4th quarter) ▲ It recorded -1.8% (1st quarter of 2023) ▲4.9% (2nd quarter) ▲5.5% (3rd quarter).
Some point out that this is because consumption in the military sector increased due to the war economy. Russia has increased its investment in domestic machinery and computer fields due to Western sanctions. In addition, sanctions are virtually neutralized through indirect trade with China and India based on natural resources. Compared to before the war, Russia’s trade volume with China increased by 26% (compare November 2022 and November 2023). On January 10, the IMF predicted Russia’s economic growth rate in 2024 to be 2.6%, more than twice the previous estimate.
Putin’s approval rating has risen since the war. According to the Lebada Analysis Center, a Russian non-governmental research institute, the approval rating for Putin is 69% in February 2020 (30% opposed) 65% in February 2021 (35% opposed) 2 in 2022 71% in March (27% opposed) ▲83% in February 2023 (14% opposed) ▲85% in January 2024 (12% opposed).
In the early stages of the war, the Russian army carried out large-scale military operations in Belarus (northern), Donbas (east), and the Crimean Peninsula (southern) toward Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. The West predicted that Russia would occupy Ukraine in the short term. However, Ukrainian troops and citizens blocked the Russian military’s attack, focusing on major cities. As a result, Russia, whose offensive slowed down, changed its operational goal to occupying the eastern and southern regions and fought battles centered on Donbas and Kherson (southern). Ukraine recaptured Kherson, a key southern location, through a counteroffensive in November 2022, but failed in a large-scale operation to recover the Donbas region in June 2023. Rather than a battle of attack and defense, the war of attrition continues, with only increasing casualties.
According to an analysis by the Institute of War Studies (ISW), on February 10, the Russian military launched 31 Iranian-made Shahed unmanned attack aircraft from the Krum Peninsula, but Ukrainian air defense units shot down 23 of them. Russian government officials and diplomats are carrying out cognitive warfare targeting Germany as the main target to block additional security support to Ukraine. It is strengthening. Germany provides the most aid to Ukraine following the United States.
In the early days of the war, the media reported that Ukraine was blocking the Russian army’s advance and that advanced weapons were behind it. There was intensive coverage of the US-made anti-tank missile FGM-148 Javelin supplied to Ukraine and the neutralization of a Russian tank by the British-made NLAW. At the same time, advanced weapons were described as ‘game changers’ and reported as if Ukraine would turn the tide of the war based on these weapons.
Thanks to Western support, the Ukrainian military was able to determine the location of the Russian army in real time. We also built a system that can obtain attack coordinates and immediately strike the enemy. However, as the war lasted more than a year, most of the weapons that were considered ‘game changers’ at the time of their introduction were exhausted. Regardless of nationality, troops fighting on the front lines are being consumed by fear of drones, relying on trenches with conventional weapons of the type that appeared in World War I. This ‘hybrid war’, where new technology and old technology are intertwined, seems to have the same ending as any other war.
There is no ‘game changer’… The essence of war is armed conflict between countries.
Jeon Gyeong-hoon, a researcher at the Korea Defense Research Forum (38th Class, Reserve Major), said, “The media describes some advanced weapons as ‘game changers,’ but this is an exaggeration. “Even if we fight with weapons using cutting-edge science and technology, if the war is prolonged, troops and firepower will have no choice but to adopt the classic method of warfare at the level of total national warfare,” he said.
He continued, “The high-tech warfare and cyber warfare that partially appeared in this war are only a part of the war, but the essence of the war, which is ‘direct armed conflict between countries,’ does not change. On the battlefield, victory or defeat is determined by cooperation between multiple classes and joint operations of each army. “It’s like an orchestra.”
A former researcher said, “Russia attempted to eliminate Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and other leaders by infiltrating Spetsnaz (special forces) into the capital Kiev, but Russia’s plan was not realized due to the West, which has overwhelming information power, helping Ukraine.” “Since the days of the former Soviet Union, Russia has placed great emphasis on eliminating national leadership at the beginning of a war,” he said.
Russia’s plan was to deploy airborne troops to occupy the capital, Kiev, assassinate the national leadership, and establish a puppet regime with the support of pro-Russian collaborators active in Ukraine to occupy all of Ukraine. Prior to the invasion, Russia was also carrying out plans to take control of Ukraine’s infrastructure, including establishing a ghost security company in Ukraine to take charge of security for major facilities such as bridges and railways. Recruitment of key government figures had also been completed.
—It is impressive that Ukraine, not the United States, fights while understanding the battlefield situation in real time.
“With the support of the West, Ukraine has established a real-time connection network on the battlefield. Thanks to this, we are fighting effectively in multiple domains connecting land, sea, air, and space. “There is also help from Western private satellite companies.”
—Russia neutralized the Ukrainian military’s communication system through cyber and electronic warfare. Nevertheless, what is the background to the maintenance of the Ukrainian military’s command system?
“This is thanks to the Starlink provided by Elon Musk to Ukraine immediately following the outbreak of the war. The command communication system was maintained using a satellite Internet network. “This is something Russia might not have predicted.”
—In addition to high-tech weapons, what conventional weapons have been confirmed to still be effective?
“There are grenade launchers and mortars that infantry can use immediately, and mechanized forces include tanks and armored vehicles. In the early days of the war, there was a theory that tanks were useless, and this happened because tanks were not properly operated. It was confirmed once once more that artillery is a major means of supporting firepower and striking enemy rear concentration and supply bases. There has been no significant change in the aspects of war, past or present. “The cutting-edge weapons of the time were always used first, followed by conventional weapons when they were exhausted.”
—What kind of weapons did the West provide to Ukraine?
“Most of the conventional weapons needed for combat were supported. Advanced weapons were limited to use within Ukraine for defensive purposes. Performance was also reduced to a certain extent. This is to prevent an escalation of war by limiting the ability to attack the Russian mainland. “When Ukraine conducts limited attacks on mainland Russia, it uses domestically produced weapons.”
—How is Russia replenishing its weapons?
“Import of finished products is limited to cases where bulk demand is required, such as ammunition or artillery shells. Instead, Western-made precision parts or civilian products that can be used for military purposes are imported indirectly through third countries or intermediaries and then produced by domestic military companies. “China (commercial drones, civilian items for military use, etc.), Iran (unmanned aerial vehicles, missiles, ammunition, etc.), North Korea (missiles, ammunition, etc.), and CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) member countries are providing assistance.”
Both Russia and Russia fought with Chinese drones. The drone Phantom 4 from China’s DJI, the world’s largest private drone producer, has a camera underneath. Both Russia and Ukraine are using these drones. Photo = Newsis
—How much drones are used by both sides?
“The small drones used in front-line combat that appear in the media are closer to expendable items. Calculating is meaningless. As the war continues, military drones are in short supply. “In both Russia and Ukraine, most of the disposable drones (such as self-destruct drones) used on the front lines are imported and modified for civilian use made by China’s DJI.”
—China is the biggest beneficiary in the drone field.
“China’s DJI controls 70-80% of the global civil drone market. When using a DJI drone, all information (location information, flight path, target information, camera video, etc.) goes to the DJI main server.”
Director Joo Eun-sik of the Korea Institute of Strategic Studies (36th Class, Reserve Army Brigadier General) studied at the Russian General Staff College (equivalent to Korea’s National Defense University) for two years starting in 2001. Previously, in the May 2022 issue of Monthly Chosun, he said, “We should not demonize Putin or be hostile to Russia solely out of sympathy for the weak.”
Director Joo said, “The results of the defense reforms carried out by Russia and Ukraine were revealed in this war. “Russia failed, and Ukraine succeeded,” he said.
“Since 2014, Ukraine has adopted a base-based defense strategy to protect its vast territory. They mainly defended urban areas, but carried out guerrilla warfare between cities. On the other hand, Russia believed that there would not be a large-scale war, and instead of reducing the size of its units, it increased individual units, resulting in difficulties in early battles due to lack of cooperation between various branches.”
The background of Ukrainian military propaganda is the defense reform following the 2014 Donbas incident.
Major General Joo said this regarding the Ukrainian army’s propaganda.
“The Ukrainian army appears to be using former Soviet-made weapons, but following the Donbas incident in 2014, it adopted the US military doctrine and introduced and applied the ‘mission-type command’ system. This is a method of granting autonomous authority to field commanders and combatants in small units so that they can fight while making the most of the advantages of time and space. In the past, the military doctrine of the former Soviet Union was centralized, but mission-based command gives a mission to a subordinate unit and the unit then takes care of how to carry it out.”
The Ukrainian military learned the mission-type command system from 2016 until 2021 at the combat training center operated by the U.S. European Command.
Major General Joo Eun-sik explained, “The Ukrainian military’s propaganda is due to their good military use of cutting-edge networks,” and “The success or failure of future wars will depend on whether they can distinguish which information is real and which is fake.”
“It is said that our country is a cutting-edge science and IT powerhouse, but it is difficult to say that the level of IT in the defense sector is competitive. Network capabilities are important to accurately understand the battle situation, but the Korean military still falls short. “We talk regarding network-centric warfare (NCW, a method of warfare that utilizes a network connecting all geographically dispersed forces), but we have not yet established a policy to acquire such capabilities.”
Director Joo Eun-sik said, “When the North Korean drone infiltration incident occurred in December 2022, we created the Drone Operation Command, but there is no established concept or doctrine on which drones to use and how to operate them.” He added, “How can we learn from the Russo-Russian war? “We need to come up with a plan on whether to weaponize and standardize drones and how to operate them by unit,” he said.
He also said, “Currently, our military does not have the capacity to gather together the information generated by front-line units. “There is no information regarding which units did what training in the field and what level of power they have,” he said. “We use the defense cloud to collect information from front-line units, use artificial intelligence (AI) to gather that power, and use it in case of emergency.” “We need to be able to demonstrate it,” he said.
Tactics are more important than weapons
Jeong Gyeong-woon (Lieutenant Colonel of the Army Reserve), an expert researcher at the Korea Institute of Strategic Studies, said, “The scope of this war is very wide, from the trench warfare seen in World War I to future warfare in which unmanned aerial vehicles dominate the battlefield.” He added, “Future warfare will involve cutting-edge military power. Although its role will grow, the focus of ground warfare will still be based on ‘mobility and firepower.’ In this war, the largest number of casualties are caused by conventional weapon systems such as artillery and multiple rockets. “Drones and unmanned aerial vehicles are still just auxiliary means,” he said.
He continued, “In this war, the importance of tactics to effectively operate military power stood out, rather than the appearance of military power, that is, the weapon system. “The reason Russia is struggling is because the Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) does not operate tactically once morest Ukraine and the Ukrainian army,” he said.
Expert researcher Jeong Gyeong-woon said, “The importance of satellites and networks has also emerged once more,” adding, “Satellite-based intelligence collection, data communication through satellites, real-time dissemination and distribution of intelligence and information, and real-time striking effects based on decision automation. “Maximization really shows why satellites and networks are important in warfare,” he explained.
In Ukraine, even in the early stages of the war, women and the elderly volunteered to fight together as a mobilization reserve force. However, as the war continues, the human and material resources that can be mobilized decrease, leading to difficulties on the front lines. Accordingly, an international volunteer force has been recruited to maintain the front line. When Russia ran out of regular troops, it deployed the Wagner mercenary group, a type of private military company (PMC), to the front lines.
Koo Koo-geun (42nd Army Reserve Major), Dean of the Department of Defense Counseling and Leadership at Korea Open Cyber University, is an expert in the field of mobilization and served as the first commander of the Army Mobilization Force Command. The Army created the Mobilization Force Command, which manages the mobilization division, in April 2018 to ‘elite reserve forces.’ In case of emergency, most of the mobilized forces (reserve forces) are assigned to the mobilized division and fight.
Department Head Koo Ku-geun said, “It was confirmed once once more that maintaining logistics, supply, and mobilization power is important,” and added, “When both Russia and Russia exhausted their prepared troops and materials, they issued a mobilization order and recruited additional troops. “After troops are replenished, unrest continues to occur in that order: materials, weapons, and artillery,” he explained.
He continued, “Although Russia started this war under the name of a ‘special military operation’ rather than a war, it declared a mobilization order and recruited troops for five weeks, but as many as 300,000 people deserted. “Russia had to form a unit with poorly trained troops as the number of deserters increased in the early stages of the war,” he said.
At least 1% of defense budget must be spent on reserve forces and KCTC training must be provided.
Department Head Koo said, “Ukraine maintained a high level of combat power thanks to joint training with the armies of NATO member countries, with reserve forces carrying the same weapons as active duty forces.” He added, “The reserve forces also took out Russian tanks with Javelin anti-tank missiles.” At the same time, he said, “Our country’s reserve forces also need to train reserve forces with the weapons supplied to front-line active duty units.”
“When young men serve on active duty, they use the latest weapons, but when they become reserve forces, they are trained with very old equipment from the 1970s and 1980s. Unnecessary time is spent learning new ways to use outdated weapons. How inefficient. In case of emergency, 80-90% of the troops needed to defend the capital, Seoul, or cities, are accounted for by reserve forces. Wouldn’t it be possible to fight effectively in times of war if you regularly train reserve forces with the weapons you used during active duty?
Reserve forces must also train at the Scientific Combat Training Corps (KCTC). However, they do not allow me to join because of the tight schedule. “If necessary, I would like to create more training centers where people can experience actual combat so that active duty and reserve forces can receive training together.”
Dean Koo Gu-geun usually argues that “at least 1% of the defense budget should be used to maintain mobilization.” At the same time, he said, “In the reality that there is a shortage of standing troops due to low birth rates and shortened military service periods, it is impossible to fight and win once morest the enemy with active duty alone without reserve troops.”
According to the 2022 defense budget, the mobilization sector was 261.2 billion won, only 0.48% of the total defense budget. The defense budget for the 2.73 million reserve forces (as of 2022) was only 1/200th of the total.
What is the level of mobilization in our country? In 1996, a mobilization order was issued during the armed communist infiltration in Gangneung, but the response rate for mobilization on the first day was below 40%. On the other hand, during the Third Middle East War (June 1976), Israel mobilized 23 brigades of reserve forces and completed the formation of units within 20 hours following the mobilization order was declared. In the Israel-Hamas incident that occurred last year, when the Israeli government declared a mobilization order, reserve forces scattered around the world gathered in Israel.
A look at our country’s reserve forces training ground. For fear of gun accidents, people lock their guns and shoot. Photo = Chosun DB
7-8 out of 10 Ukrainians know they can’t win
What is the local situation in Ukraine like? Cho Yun-dong (65), head of the Ukraine branch of the Advisory Council for Democratic Peace and Unification (Democratic Unification Advisory Council), has lived in the region for 25 years, starting as an expatriate and running a private business there. He visited Ukraine in October last year and is now living in Korea. He talks to local employees every day to understand the local situation. He is considering closing his business due to the severe economic damage caused by the war.
Branch Chairman Cho said, “Battles are taking place on the eastern and southern fronts, air raid warnings are occasionally sounded, and artillery shells are falling, but the majority of Ukrainians are living their daily lives as before the war.” At the same time, “President Zelensky and some politicians have expressed their will to fight to the death, but among the Ukrainian people, fatigue with the war is accumulating, with 7 to 8 out of 10 people wanting the war to end. “Realistically, I know I can’t win,” he said.
Chairman Cho said, “The war did not happen suddenly,” and that Russia’s hybrid warfare, including political and psychological warfare, has been in progress for a long time.
“Since the early 2000s, Russia has been occupying Ukraine by sending spies to the eastern part of Ukraine to train pro-Russian personnel and recruit key figures. Pro-Russian figures, including apartment complex representatives, security guards, and politicians, filled the eastern region. Isn’t war fought only with guns and swords? The invisible war had started long before that. “Korea should also learn from this.”
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