2024-02-29 19:50:43
About 60 million Iranians will go to the polls on Friday to renew 290 representatives in the Shura Council for four years, in addition to 87 members of the Leadership Council of Experts, which is responsible for appointing the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. Those who follow Iranian affairs agree that the only bet for these elections is the turnout rate, which is expected to be weak due to the dire economic and political situation.
Published on: 02/29/2024 – 20:50
7 minutes
More than 60 million Iranians were invited on Friday to participate in Legislative elections To choose 290 representatives in Consultative Council (Iranian Parliament) for a new period of 4 years, and to renew the members of the Leadership Council of Experts (87 members) who have the authority to choose the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.
These elections are the first since the death of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, in September 2022 in a hospital in Tehran after she was arrested by the morality police for not wearing the hijab. This incident sparked protests and demonstrations throughout the country’s cities, leading to deaths and injuries among the demonstrators.
This election date also comes at a time when foreign voices have risen denouncing Tehran’s position regarding the war between Israel and Hamas, as it is accused by some, especially Israel, of supplying weapons and money to the Palestinian Islamic Movement, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Some observers of Iranian affairs believe that these elections do not constitute a major political challenge for the majority of Iranians, led by reformists and youth who want real change in the country’s political system. Expectations indicate that a large number of voters will abstain from voting offices, which may give victory to the conservatives who have historically controlled the reins of power, and this has been the case since the election. Ibrahim Raisi President of the Islamic Republic on June 18, 2021.
Below are some keys to understanding the stakes of these legislative elections.
Election of members of the Shura and Experts Councils
Iranians vote to choose the 290 members who make up the Shura Council (parliament) for a 4-year term. But in reality, this institution does not play an important political role in the country and does not have significant powers compared to the influential power it enjoys. The Supreme Leader of the Republic, He is currently Ali Khamenei, who is considered the central political figure in the country.
Read also: Two Iranian directors send a message “to free women” in their country through the Berlin Film Festival
The 87 members who will form the Leadership Council of Experts will also be elected for a term of 8 years. It is the most important political and religious institution in the country because its members are the ones who choose the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.
These are the first national elections since the protest movement that shook the country after the death of the young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, in 2022.
This election date is seen as a new political test for the regime, which has lost its legitimacy in the eyes of many Iranians, especially those who belong to the reformist movement and the educated middle class.
Who will participate in these elections?
Any Iranian over the age of 15 can participate in the legislative elections, in which 144 candidates, the majority of whom are from the conservative movement, participate and have received the approval of the Guardian Council from among about 500 competitors.
The majority of candidates affiliated with the reformist or moderate movement did not receive the green light to participate in the elections. Moderate former President Hassan Rouhani is one of the most prominent contenders who did not obtain the approval of the Guardian Council to participate in this electoral date, even though he has been a member of the Assembly of Experts since 1999.
Read also: Did the regime really abolish the “morality police”?
Rouhani’s violent criticisms of the Iranian regime during the 2022 protests did not help him obtain a visa to participate in legislation.
In addition, the chairmanship of the hardline and conservative Ahmad Jannati (96 years old) of the Leadership Council of Experts undermined Hassan Rouhani’s chances of participating.
More than 30 thousand candidates were prevented from participating. As for religious minorities, they will be represented by only five representatives in the next parliament (one representative for the Jewish community, 2 for the Armenian Christians, 1 for the Assyrians and Canaanites, and only one representative for the Zoroastrian community).
What are the stakes of the legislative elections?
This election date comes only two years after the massive protests that took place in the country in 2022 and one year after the opposition Narges Mohammadi won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2023 for defending public freedoms and human rights in her country.
The question is: Will Iranians affiliated with the liberal movement take advantage of this opportunity to participate forcefully and thus change the nature of governance and the balance of power in their country? Or, as usual, will they boycott it under the pretext that the Shura Council has no weight or prominent powers and that strategic decisions are in the hands of the Supreme Leader?
Jerome Fourcade, a specialist in Iranian politics at the French Institute for Scientific Research, considered that “the majority of Iranians have lost hope. They have realized that it is difficult for change to come from the outside, nor from within, as it has become difficult to change the regime because of the power it enjoys and the fact that it controls all the country’s institutions.” “.
Read also: “It is the regime that has become afraid, not the people.”
For its part, the Iranian regime is seeking to win the bet of continuity in power due to the upcoming political dates, most notably the election of a new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic in the event that Ali Khamenei dies. The second bet is related to US policy and the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power in the November elections. For this reason, the Iranian regime wants to maintain its control over all state institutions.
What are the expectations for participation rate?
In 2020, participation in the legislative elections did not exceed 42 percent. This is the real challenge facing the Iranian regime this time.
Jerome Fourcade expects that “the boycott percentage will be much higher than that witnessed in the 2020 legislative elections because people do not feel that they are concerned with it and that their only concern is improving their difficult social and economic conditions.”
He added that there is a possibility that only 30 to 40 percent of voters will participate in the vote at the national level and only 8 percent in the capital, Tehran (according to some opinion polls). This constitutes a new element in Iranian politics, according to the same expert, as it is customary for the population to vote in large numbers.
Why don’t Iranians care about these elections?
The main concern for the majority of Iranians remains how to earn their daily living at a time when the inflation rate has risen by 40 percent, causing the prices of basic materials to rise.
In addition, unemployment and low salaries pose another dilemma. This made many Iranians, especially in inner cities, work two jobs to increase their purchasing power and confront the problem of high prices.
On the political level, Jerome Fourcade says: “The Iranians have lost confidence in their country and have begun to believe that elections are useless for several reasons. First: The nuclear agreement that Donald Trump tore up after he opened the door to great optimism for the Iranians has become a thing of the past. Second: The 2022 protests did not change anything.” At the country level, it even allowed the regime to strengthen its position.
Taher Hani
1709237133
#Legislative #elections #bet #participation #rate