Labor Day in the U.S. typically marks the start of the final stretch of the campaign season. But this year, the first Monday in September felt like a pause — a brief respite after a tumultuous two months.
In the end, the presidential campaign almost seems to have returned to “normal.” The candidates fought over the different issues and their respective agendas. There were no questions about whether one candidate would drop out of the race. And if the polls are any guide, public opinion is also coming around to something resembling normal.
Just look at our polling averages, which have been updated since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race (another sign of a return to normalcy). There are no signs of the political chaos of the past few months. Instead, the results look typical: Nationwide, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by three percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent. In the most contested states, the race is tied. In every state and across the country, the polling average is within 1.5 points of the 2020 presidential election result.
In short, the polls finally show the close election that analysts expected a year ago, before President Joe Biden’s candidacy was out of the equation. If anything, it’s even closer than expected: Today’s polling averages are closer than the final pre-election polls of any presidential election in the modern polling era — closer than in 2000, 2004 or 2012, let alone 2016 or 2020.
The unusual demographic patterns of the past year — the erosion of support for Biden among traditionally Democratic groups — have also been fading. But there are some vestiges of what we saw in the unusual polling of the Biden-Trump race. In some cases, it’s a little surprising. Here’s a look at how the race is — or isn’t — getting back to normal.
The return of the generation gap
The Democratic advantage among young voters is back. In high-quality polls over the past month, Vice President Harris leads Trump by an average of 20 points among the youngest demographic surveyed (either 18-29 or 18-34). In July, the same polls showed Biden and Trump tied among young voters. Older voters, meanwhile, have barely swung toward Harris. Overall, the familiar generational divide in American politics has returned.
That said, the polls are not entirely typical. Harris remains ahead among seniors, a group that post-election studies showed leaned slightly toward Trump in 2020. The difference between the current poll of seniors and the estimated result among them in the previous election is not particularly large. But it is still a striking difference.
It’s hard to know for sure whether Harris’s strength among seniors is due to the aging of the boomers is working out to the Democrats’ advantage, or whether the polls are wrong and they are having trouble reaching Trump supporters, or whether Democrats and Biden were actually better liked by older people than was estimated all along.
Whatever the explanation, this is no statistical fluke caused by small sample sizes: Polls have long shown Democrats doing surprisingly well among older people, even before the 2020 election.
Adding to the possibility that Democrats have simply had more traction among older people all along is the Pew NPORS study. In each of its annual surveys, conducted over a five-year span and involving more than 7,000 respondents over the age of 65, Democrats tied or outperformed Republicans in party identification. Similarly, in every survey, more seniors said they supported Biden than Trump in 2020.
An uptick among people of color and Hispanics
Trump’s strength among African-American and Hispanic voters was one of the most surprising trends of the cycle. With Harris as the Democratic nominee, it’s no surprise that Trump’s lead has narrowed.
In the last month of high-quality polling, Harris holds a 78-14 lead among Black voters and a 52-41 lead among Hispanic voters. Our New York Times/Siena College polls in the battleground states show similar results, with an 80-15 lead among Black voters and a 52-42 lead among Hispanics. In each case, Harris is midway between Biden’s weak position before he dropped out of the race and her best estimated showing in the 2020 election.
While this is closer to typical, “normal” is not necessarily the right term to describe the current numbers. Trump’s current showing — 14 percent support among black voters and 41 percent among Hispanic voters — would still represent the highest level of support a Republican presidential candidate has received in pre-election polls since the passage of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.
Harris could continue to gain ground among these groups over the last two months. It is also possible that polls are overestimating Trump’s strength or that many of his black and Hispanic supporters simply won’t vote.
But it is also becoming conceivable that Trump could score some of the best results ever recorded by a Republican among voters of color – and that he could do so against a black Democratic candidate who is also of South Asian descent. This would not be a “racial realignment,” but it would have important consequences for the future of American politics.
The participation gap is disappearing
One of the more unusual features of last year’s polls was Biden’s notable weakness among less-engaged voters, though he held up among the kind of voters who fueled Democratic success in midterm and special elections.
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This pattern has softened somewhat since Harris entered the race, though it has not disappeared entirely. In the latest Times/Siena polls of battleground states, Harris was six points behind among those who did not vote in the 2022 election, compared with 15 points behind Biden in May. The latest Cook Political Report polls show a similar pattern, using slightly different definitions of political engagement.
Of course, the least engaged voters are likely to be those who have least followed the drama of the past two months. We’ll see how that changes in the final stretch.
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#polls #show #elections #moving #closer #normal
The Return to Normalcy: Labor Day Marks a Shift in the Presidential Campaign
As the United States celebrated Labor Day, marking the start of the final stretch of the campaign season, the presidential campaign seems to have returned to a sense of normalcy. After a tumultuous two months, the candidates are back to fighting over their respective agendas, and public opinion is slowly coming around to a familiar pattern.
A Typical Election, but with a Twist
According to polling averages, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by three percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent, nationwide. In the most contested states, the race is tied. While the polls seem to be showing a typical close election, there are some unusual demographic patterns that have emerged.
The Generation Gap Returns
One notable trend is the return of the generation gap, with Vice President Harris leading Trump by an average of 20 points among young voters (18-29 or 18-34). This is a reversal from July, when Biden and Trump were tied among young voters. However, Harris remains ahead among seniors, a group that leaned slightly toward Trump in 2020.
The Strength Among Seniors
It is unclear whether Harris’s strength among seniors is due to the aging of the baby boomers working out to the Democrats’ advantage or if the polls are wrong and having trouble reaching Trump supporters. However, polls have consistently shown Democrats doing surprisingly well among older people, even before the 2020 election.
An Uptick Among People of Color and Hispanics
Another significant trend is the narrowing of Trump’s lead among African-American and Hispanic voters. With Harris as the Democratic nominee, she holds a 78-14 lead among Black voters and a 52-41 lead among Hispanic voters. While this is closer to typical, Trump’s current showing would still represent the highest level of support a Republican presidential candidate has received in pre-election polls since the passage of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.
The Participation Gap Disappears
One of the more unusual features of last year’s polls was Biden’s weakness among less-engaged voters. However, this pattern has softened somewhat since Harris entered the race. In the latest Times/Siena polls of battleground states, Harris was six points behind among those who did not vote in the
