2023-09-13 04:20:52
Published on September 13, 2023 at 06:20. Modified on September 13, 2023 at 07:02.
For now, it’s just a threat. The specter of a long period of inflation and economic stagnation. “It is too early to say that we are in a framework of stagflation,” European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on Monday. Questioned by Bloomberg, the Italian politician in charge of Economic Affairs wanted to believe in a rebound in activity next year. He was speaking on the occasion of a downward revision of economic forecasts, mainly due to Germany’s current poor form.
This means that the September meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be held on Thursday under high tension. Since the Central Bank began its monetary tightening, the games have never been so open. The institution chaired by Christine Lagarde is caught between persistent inflation and an economy which is stalling following the nine key rate increases since July 2022. While the European Commission was counting on growth of 1.1% this summer for the euro zone in 2023, it has revised its copy and now expects an increase of 0.8%. Still uncertain, the year 2024 might see the gross domestic product (GDP) of the euro zone increase by 1.3%. The Bloomberg agency, which surveyed a panel of analysts, is even less optimistic: 0.6% in 2023 and 0.8% next year.
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