2023-07-27 16:02:00
This type of comment is not uncommon when publishing climate-related stories, especially right now. Indeed, for some people, it is difficult to reconcile the gloomy Belgian weather of recent weeks with new global heat records. The Belgian weather was indeed not there in July: the month was very slightly cooler than normal and it rained a lot. IRM meteorologists are indeed expecting 21 days of rain over the month – seven more than the seasonal norm – even if the amount of precipitation remains close to average. So how can the sharp contrast between these different measures be explained? The answer is simple: they are two different scales.
Weather: until when will the bad weather in July continue?
Different indicators
A distinction must be made between what is happening locally, for example in a country, and what is happening on a global scale. “When we talk about the global temperature, it is by definition an average between all the regions of the world”, explains Hugues Goosse, climatologist at UCLouvain. “If you have four regions of the world that have temperatures beyond the standards, as we see in the Mediterranean, in China or in the United States. On the other hand, you have some areas that are a little less hot with slightly lower temperatures. It is by taking the average of the data recorded throughout the world that we obtain the global average temperature. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the European service Copernicus, this rises to 16.95°C for the first 23 days of July… already enabling the new record to be confirmed.
This month of July 2023 is the hottest on Earth for “thousands, even tens of thousands of years”
“Beyond that, regionally and locally, you have a lot of subtleties and a lot of changes,” continues the professor, highlighting the role of ocean and atmospheric currents. This explains the Belgian weather lately. “Why does it suck? Because we have westerly winds that bring us cool ocean air and precipitation.”
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It has nothing to do with global climate change.
And this “rotten” weather does not in any way call climate change into question. “It’s related to the particular circumstances of this month, but it has nothing to do with global climate change. These are two different things”, insists the climatologist. We have known for decades that the climate is warming and that the temperature is rising. “We’ve been saying the same thing for 40 years. The advantage is that we remain consistent and that it is verified”, launches our interlocutor, who recalls that there is to date “no longer any scientific argument” allowing us to deny climate change or its causes. .
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A matter of interest
”The most reliable indicators, such as the global temperature, are not those that interest people”, concedes Prof. Hugues Goosse. It’s quite logical, since we don’t live on a global scale… but in Belgium. However, it is precisely on these aspects that climatology still needs to make progress. “In addition to the global temperature, what we are working on is being able to understand these more local effects which directly influence people and for which, unfortunately, we still have a lot of uncertainty”, he explains. “In terms of all these questions, there is still work to be done before being able to answer people precisely on all the questions they are asking. Not to mention the fact that we will always have wet and dry summers in Belgium. That will not change as long as Belgium has the same position on Earth.”
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