2023-12-01 09:56:21
Dubai, United Arab Emirates (CNN) – The World Health Organization has classified the BA.2.86 coronavirus variant and its mutations as “of concern,” although the risk emanating from this strain, according to what the organization stated, appears low.
The organization had previously tracked this mutant as “under surveillance.”
Other variants also classified as “interesting” are XBB.1.5, XBB.1.6 and EG.5. There are no current variants of concern, which is the highest classification in the organization.
BA.2.86 first appeared in the United States in August, and is considered the third most common variant, causing regarding 1 in 11 new cases of “Covid-19,” according to the latest update on variant tracking at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The rate of spread appears to have tripled in the past two weeks, although the growth of the mutant was overestimated in the first few weeks following its appearance, according to the agency’s monitoring.
But if BA.2.86 is not so important, why is WHO updating it?
“We have seen a slow and steady increase in its detection around the world,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for COVID-19 at the World Health Organization, explained in a video circulated on social media. She continued: “By describing it as a variant of interest, it helps to strengthen the monitoring of these types of variants around the world, and also stimulates research” to understand whether it causes more severe disease or is more immune evasive.
Slow development
BA.2.86, which some virus watchers called Pirola, sparked a wave of research when it came to the world’s attention over the summer because it shared many of the characteristics that led to the spread of the BA.1 variant, of the original Omicron strain of the coronavirus, and it spread quickly, leading to… Hospitalizations and deaths are rising globally.
With more than 30 mutations in its spike proteins, BA.2.86 was so genetically distinct from previous mutations of the virus that causes Covid-19 that scientists feared it might completely evade vaccine immunity and contribute to another wave of infections.
However, what is puzzling is that BA.2.86 did not follow the same path as Omicron. Some studies have indicated that with the development of all its new mutations, this variant has lost some of its ability to infect our cells, allowing their growth to slow.
Other studies found that it did not completely evade the body’s immunity and that the current “Covid-19” vaccine, which carries instructions on combating the XBB.1.5 mutant, provided some protection from it, which was good news.
But mutant hunters tempered this optimism by warning that the original virus BA.2.86 is still evolving, and one of its variants may recover to become a force to be reckoned with.
Dr. Jesse Bloom, a computational virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle, USA, pointed out that in fact, BA.2.86 continues to evolve and send more rapid mutations to the world.
Bloom pointed out that work conducted by researchers at Columbia University and China showed that the JN.1 mutant has one change in its genetic code that makes it more able to escape our immune defenses, although the difference is modest: the ability of our antibodies to neutralize the virus has declined by regarding two times.
However, it seems that this modification was enough to give it a growth advantage over its predecessor.
“In terms of the speed of its spread, what we can see is that the numbers of JN.1 are increasing faster than the original BA.2.86,” Bloom said.
At the same time, the distantly related XBB family of viruses, which now includes several faster and more evasive strains such as HV.1, is expanding its spread.
HV.1 is currently the dominant strain in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and causes illness in regarding 1 in 3 new cases of COVID-19.
The scarcity of data makes predictions difficult
“A number of countries have seen a rise in cases abroad as BA.2.86 and JN.1 spread,” noted Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
In Europe, the disease was linked to many countries, but it did not happen in other countries, so what do we understand from that?
Europe has been considered a good barometer of what the coronavirus might do to the United States, but immunity, behavior and surveillance vary so much from country to country that it is difficult to know what might happen there.
One big problem is the paucity of data, said Dr. Peter Hotez, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital, who developed a COVID-19 vaccine.
“Knowing what’s going on is harder than it used to be because we’re no longer doing as much surveillance, so we have to rely on forecasts, and a combination of elements like wastewater, hospitalizations, and the percentage of positive cases,” Hotez explained.
However, given the signs we can see, Hotez noted that there is reason for caution in the coming weeks.
Hospitalization rates due to the Corona virus, which had been declining, began to rise once more.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Control, last week, more than 18,000 Americans were hospitalized due to Covid-19, an increase of approximately 10% from the previous week.
Nationally, coronavirus levels in wastewater have been rising and appear to be increasing, which may herald rising case numbers.
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