2024-02-23 03:29:00
MétéoMédiaEditorial team
Published on February 22, 2024 at 10:29 p.m.
El Niño tends to quickly lose its feathers, a situation which quietly paints the portrait of spring in Quebec.
The sun, a major climatic player, gains momentum around the month of March. This slowly sets the table for the warmth of spring and, more broadly, that of the summer season.
However, other elements have an influence on the progress of the transition season. This year, El Niño is at the top of the list. Remember that the latter contributed to giving the 2023-2024 winter season the appearance of a damp squib.
However, the warm water anomaly, well established in the Pacific Ocean, is tending to change, which may have consequences on the shape of the coming spring.
Similar cases to analyze
Since the 1950s, this particular phenomenon has reared its ugly head 13 times. Surprisingly, while El Niño generally contributes to a mild winter, the trend seems to reverse for the following season. “Of the 13 cases observed, we have four which led to mild springs, which represents a minority,” explains meteorologist Réjean Ouimet.
El Niño is often in decline after peaking during the winter, which is likely to be the case this year. “The speed at which El Niño is weakening appears to be significant. A slow decline is associated with a disappointing spring most of the time,” estimates Réjean Ouimet. He specifies that only three springs have been cool, namely in 1983, 1992 and 2019.
This time, it is rather the opposite which is taking shape, since the water in the Pacific risks cooling more quickly. A similar situation, where a strong El Niño quickly faded, occurred in 1998 and 2016.
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