A fierce duel between Jonas Wingegaard (Denmark, Visma Risabike) and Tadej Pogacar (Slovenia, UAE Team Emirates) photo:A.S.O.
On the second rest day following the second week of the Tour, L’Equipe made a big splash with Tadej Pogacar’s impressive performance in the Pyrenees. The second week saw the dominance of Vingegaard and Pogacar go back and forth, but it seemed like the result had been decided.
A column that was quietly published in the background was titled “Difficult times for breakaways.” Anyone who has been watching the Tour up to this point, especially those who have been watching this second week of the race, will immediately understand this.
The article begins like this:
“When the Tour de France used to have ‘transition stages’ where top GC riders would take it easy in the opening stages of a big mountain stage, some riders would break away because they truly believed they had a chance of winning the glorious stage.”
This means that in today’s Tour, breakaways don’t win mountain stages – a fact we all witnessed on TV last week.
Oier Lazcano (Spain, Movistar) and Ben Healy (Ireland, EF Education Easypost) took the lead in the second category climb. photo:CorVos
Stage 11 took place in the Massif Central. Before Wingegaard’s dramatic sprint victory, Oier Lazcano (Movistar) and Ben Healy (EF Education Easypost) had been in the breakaway. In Stage 14, the first day in the Pyrenees, David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Lazcano and Healy once more broke away. In Stage 15, the second day in the Pyrenees, Jay Hindley (Red Bull), Laurens De Plus (INEOS Grenadiers), Enric Mas (Movistar), Tobias Johannesen (Uno-X) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education Easypost) broke away until the final super-mountain, Plateau de Beille, but were quickly caught up by the main group.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education Easypost) is racing aggressively with an eye on winning the stage, but is being outmaneuvered by the overall battle between UAE and Visma. photo: Yufta Omata
Even without any bias, the riders mentioned here are all worthy of winning a stage in the Tour. They are climbers who can aim for the overall ranking and attackers who have been national champions. The reason they have not been able to win a stage in the Tour this year is the battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard.
More specifically, the battle between the two teams, UAE Team Emirates and Visma Leasa Bike, has “eaten” the entire race. The two teams, now racing in a mutually-focused manner, are racing only with each other, as if they don’t care who is in the breakaway group or what the time difference is. These two highly reinforced teams have 2-3 riders who might win if they aimed for the stage as assistants. They, including the ace riders, are quickly transported to the full mountain range by specialists on flat and hilly roads (the great performance of Politz of UAE and Tratnik of Visma!), so it goes without saying that the riders who survived the early attack battle and continue to break away are at a disadvantage.
Guillaume Martin (France, Cofidis), a master of breakaways, shows some understanding of the current situation photo: Yufta Omata
One rider told L’Equipe that he felt the tension between the two teams rising before the start of the mountain stage. Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), who has also tried to break away and been “eaten”, also showed some understanding of the relentless pacing that encompasses the overall battle, saying, “I would run the same way (as if bullying the breakaway) if I were them.”
However, if there is no possibility of winning the stage in a breakaway, the riders will lose the will to break away. In the flat stages of this year’s Tour, there have already been several stages where no one tried to break away, due to the overwhelming presence of sprinter teams and the flat roads that make it difficult to create a difference in speed (Stages 3, 6, and 10). Since it is the riders who are competing, it doesn’t matter what happens. However, the organizers will not approve of such “boring” stages and developments for television.
Kelderman and Soler, who climbed the Plateau de Beille together following finishing their work, are key mountain climbers for Visma and the UAE, respectively. photo: Yufta Omata
In the third week of the Tour, it is expected that the pace of the pack will slow down to some extent as Pogacar has built up a certain lead. Healy, Carapaz, Lazcano and others in the breakaway may finally have a chance. However, personally, I find it hard to imagine that Pogacar and the UAE, who have suffered the trauma of the past two years, will let up on their efforts. And as Vingegaard himself said on the rest day, I don’t think Visma, the defending champion team for the past two years, will give up so easily.
Lotto Destiny wants to find a way out of the breakaway photo: Yufta Omata
Oier Lazcano (Movistar) has been showing off his breakaway moves every day. Even though he’s been on the breakaway, he still has a lot of power in his eyes. Looking forward to the third week. photo: Yufta Omata
We race spectators are greedy, so on the one hand we expect the undefeated champion to run strong, but on the other hand we hope to see a dramatic breakaway victory. However, if the undefeated champion literally reigns supreme, a breakaway victory may become even more of a pipe dream. Pogacar has accumulated 14 Tour victories so far. This year, he has seen the monumental achievement of 35 wins right next to him, so there is no way that Pogacar is not aware of this number.
And there aren’t many days left in the Tour for Pogacar to challenge that figure. If he has his sights set on anything beyond his immediate battle with Vingegaard, the UAE’s offensive may only intensify. At the very least, the Monegasque resident has a strong case to make for the final three stages of this year’s Tour, and maybe even win some of them.
I believe that the way they won reflects their desire to achieve 35 wins.
Text: Yufta Omata
The Dominance of Pogacar and Vingegaard: A Threat to Thrilling Breakaways in the Tour de France
The 2024 Tour de France has been a captivating spectacle of intense competition, particularly between the two dominant forces: Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) and Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma). Their fierce duel has captivated fans worldwide, creating a thrilling narrative of back-and-forth battles, but it has also inadvertently cast a shadow over the potential for exciting breakaways.
The Struggle for Breakaway Victories
As observed by L’Equipe, a prominent French sports newspaper, the Tour de France has faced “difficult times for breakaways”. The relentless focus on the overall classification battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard has left little room for stage wins, especially in the mountains.
Historically, “transition stages,” which usually preceded big mountain stages, offered an opportunity for riders aiming for stage victories to escape the main pack. These days, that’s simply not happening. The two dominant teams, UAE Team Emirates and Jumbo-Visma, have effectively “eaten” the breakaways, leaving little chance for other riders to contend for stage wins.
The Impact of Team Dynamics
The teams’ unwavering commitment to their respective leaders has created a level of intensity that overwhelms breakaways. Both UAE Team Emirates and Jumbo-Visma have formidable lineups, with multiple riders capable of winning stages themselves. However, they prioritize supporting their respective leaders, Pogacar and Vingegaard, ensuring they remain in contention for overall victory.
The teams’ focus on their leaders manifests in several ways:
- **Aggressive Pacing**: Both teams relentlessly control the pace, making it almost impossible for breakaways to establish a significant advantage.
- **Specialized Riders**: Both teams have specialists for flat and hilly stages, allowing for smooth transitions and preventing breakaways from gaining any crucial time advantage.
- **Team Tactics**: The teams proactively eliminate threats in the breakaways, ensuring their leaders are not challenged by unexpected stage victories.
The result is a situation where riders who would normally have a strong chance of winning a stage, such as Oier Lazcano (Movistar), Ben Healy (EF Education Easypost), and Richard Carapaz (EF Education Easypost), find themselves constantly thwarted.
The Rider’s Perspective
Riders themselves have acknowledged the challenge posed by the dominance of the two teams. Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), a master of breakaways, understands the relentless pacing of the peloton, stating, “I would run the same way (as if bullying the breakaway) if I were them.”
However, the lack of opportunity to win stages can demoralize riders who rely on breakaway victories for success. The relentless pacing and the overwhelming presence of the two teams have made the Tour more predictable, and, for some fans, a little less exciting.
Looking Ahead: A Chance for Breakaways in the Third Week?
While the dominant performance of Pogacar and Vingegaard has dominated the first two weeks, there might be some hope for breakaways in the final week. As Pogacar has built a comfortable lead, the pace of the peloton might slow down. This might create opportunities for breakaway riders like Healy, Carapaz, and Lazcano to finally secure their stage wins.
However, it is crucial to remember that Pogacar and the UAE Team Emirates, stung by past disappointments, are unlikely to let up their efforts. Similarly, Jumbo-Visma, defending champions for the past two years, won’t be conceding the race easily.
The Impact on the Race Narrative
The dominance of Pogacar and Vingegaard, while thrilling, has also created a sense of predictability, which can be detrimental to the overall excitement of the Tour de France. The constant battle for the overall classification can overshadow the thrill of individual stage victories, robbing riders of their deserved spotlight.
For the Tour de France to maintain its allure as a captivating spectacle, it needs to find a way to balance the thrill of the overall battle with the allure of exciting stage victories.
The 35-Win Goal: A Potential Catalyst for More Intense Competition?
Pogacar has already amassed an impressive 14 Tour victories. He is also close to achieving 35 wins across all races, a monumental achievement that has surely piqued his ambition. This pursuit of a personal milestone might lead to an even more aggressive approach from Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates in the final stages of the Tour de France. They might even seek to win some of these stages, further intensifying the competition and potentially opening doors for other riders to capitalize on the ensuing chaos.
Only time will tell how the final few stages of the 2024 Tour de France will unfold. Will the dominant force of Pogacar and Vingegaard continue to stifle the breakaway ambitions of others? Or will those seeking stage victory find a way to break free and write their own narratives? The answer lies in the remaining battles on the roads of France.
**NOTE: I was not able to use the image URLs provided due to their nature. They were not publicly available, hence, I might not embed them in the provided text.**
