Under the Diving Market: Recognize the Situation Clearly, Give Up Illusions, Operate Short-Term, and Wait for Good News
After the market crash due to the war situation in April, the market once once more ushered in a "darkest moment." According to OKX market data, Bitcoin fell to $5,3296, a 24-hour drop of nearly 10%; Ethereum fell to $2,806, a drop of more than 10% in 24 hours. This significant decline is attributed to various factors, including news such as Mt. Gox’s multi-billion debt compensation and the German government’s continuous transfer of Bitcoin addresses, as well as the price of Bitcoin repeatedly exceeding the shutdown price of miners and enterprises, the continuous net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the liquidation of some Bitcoin and Ethereum whales.
In light of this, Odaily Planet Daily summarizes the insights of several research institutions and individuals for readers’ reference.
10xResearch: What Should You Do When Bitcoin Plummets?
As the broader market slumped further, the renowned research institution 10x Research released an article reiterating their previous prediction of a price collapse. They made a decline prediction when Bitcoin reached $67,300. Even following the weekend’s "Trump effect," 10x Research warned that this rebound was unsustainable and reiterated their estimated target prices for Bitcoin at $55,000 and $50,000. The current spot trading price of Bitcoin is $54,000, down 20% from when 10x Research issued their warning signal.
Before Ethereum fell below $3,725, 10x Research mentioned in a report that the market may undergo a cascading liquidation, causing its price to fall back to previous levels raised in anticipation of the ETF. These liquidations occurred swiftly, with futures open interest falling sharply overnight. Since the report’s release on June 7, Ethereum has fallen 22% and is currently trading at around $2,900.
10x Research advises staying away from buying the bottom and letting the bears continue to dominate the market. They recognize that many readers may have been prepared for this sell-off, and while they prefer bull markets, sometimes locking in high profits is the right strategy.
They believe that opportunities exist in the crypto market, and their investment approach proves that price movements are predictable, allowing investors to profit regardless of rising or falling prices.
Crypto Analyst: Mixed Joys and Sorrows with Stubbornness Refusing to Admit Defeat
From a market cycle perspective, crypto analyst Rekt Capital stated in his analysis, "In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak on the 518th day following the halving; in the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin reached its price peak on the 546th day following the halving. If history repeats itself, the price peak of the next bull market will occur on the 518th-546th day following the halving, which means that Bitcoin may reach a new price peak in mid-September or October 2025. Previously, Bitcoin accelerated to 260 days in this cycle. However, due to the recent consolidation phase of more than 3 months, its acceleration rate has dropped sharply and is now around 150 days. Consequently, Bitcoin will maintain a long-term consolidation state following halving, and the effect of re-synchronizing with the traditional halving cycle will be better."
Periodic Structure Synchronization Theory
Examining the long- and short-term holder structure of Bitcoin, Cauê Oliveira, BlockTrends research director and on-chain analyst, indicated that novice investors are experiencing difficulties and losing money. During the decline, approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin (purchased in the last 3-6 months) was sold. This selling pressure comes from individuals or organizations who bought Bitcoin at the beginning of the year. This group may have intended to utilize Bitcoin spot ETFs for speculation through events like the Bitcoin halving, but now they may have no choice but to exit. They may be classified as "long-term holders," but their behavior resembles short-term investors. On the other hand, individuals or organizations holding positions for over a year have not sold their holdings, indicating that true long-term holders are still holding on.
Amount of Bitcoin Transferred within 3 to 6 Months
Renowned crypto KOL il Capo of Crypto, who once "firmly shorted" during a market surge, uncharacteristically expressed his belief in "firmly holding" this time. He posted a message stating, “The market move lower has indeed been more brutal than expected. However, at this point where many are panicking and selling, I don’t think it’s appropriate to turn bearish or elect to sell now. It’s time to ‘broaden the horizon and stay calm’. You may make mistakes temporarily, but time will tell."
Summary: Recognize the Situation Clearly and Give Up Illusions
As Mr. Hu, a senior writer at Odaily Planet Daily, stated in a recent article "Mt. Gox crash is coming, BTC dropped 10% in 24H and fell below US$54,000. Where is the bottom?" "The main reason for the current market decline is the shipment of Mt. Gox, but the market may have over exaggerated its impact."
Mr. Market is sometimes slow, so slow that real information might not be immediately understood; yet sometimes he is sensitive, overreacting to the slightest sign of trouble. However, “the most important factors affecting future market trends are the results of the U.S. election and expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.”
Therefore, for market participants, including retail investors and institutions, the best course of action might be switching from "long-term thinking" to "short-term thinking" and engaging in operations within 6 hours, or even 4 hours or 2 hours. Focusing on trend trading instead of fixating on the question of "whether or not there will be a bull market for Bitcoin." There is no definitive answer.
In conclusion, the key is to recognize the situation clearly, give up illusions, operate short-term, and wait for good news.
Under the Diving Market: Recognize the Situation Clearly, Give Up Illusions, Operate Short-Term, and Wait for the Good News
The “Darkest Moment” in the Market
After the market crash due to the war situation in April, the market once once more ushered in a "darkest moment." According to OKX market data, Bitcoin fell to $5,3296, a 24-hour drop of nearly 10%. Ethereum fell to $2,806, a drop of more than 10% in 24 hours. This decline was influenced by various factors, including:
- Mt. Gox’s multi-billion debt compensation: News of Mt. Gox’s debt compensation triggered selling pressure.
- German government’s continuous transfer of Bitcoin addresses: The German government’s actions surrounding Bitcoin addresses fueled uncertainty.
- Bitcoin price exceeding the shutdown price of miners and enterprises: The price reaching the shutdown threshold forced miners and enterprises to sell.
- Continuous net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs: A net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs hinted at a bearish sentiment.
- Liquidation of Bitcoin and Ethereum whales: Several large Bitcoin and Ethereum holders were liquidated, adding to the downward pressure.
Expert Opinions: A Guide for Navigating the Market
10x Research: Don’t Rush to Buy the Bottom
The well-known research institution 10x Research predicted the price collapse, stating, "We made a decline prediction when the Bitcoin price triggered $67,300." Despite a temporary rebound due to the “Trump effect,” 10x Research warned once morest expecting a sustainable bounce. They reiterated their estimated target prices for Bitcoin at US$55,000 and US$50,000.
10x Research stresses that now is not the time to rush to buy the bottom but to hold back and let the bears run their course.
Crypto Analyst: Holding Steady
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, looking at market cycles, believes that Bitcoin’s peak in the next bull market is likely to be reached during mid-September or October 2025. However, due to the recent consolidation phase of more than three months, the acceleration rate has dropped significantly.
Long Term Holders Stay Strong
BlockTrends research director and on-chain analyst Cauê Oliveira, analyzing Bitcoin’s long- and short-term holder structure, notes that novice investors are experiencing losses while long-term holders are holding strong. The data shows $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin (purchased in the last 3-6 months) was sold during the price decline. This indicates that short-term investors are exiting the market, while long-term holders are unfazed by the price fluctuations.
The Importance of Short-Term Thinking
Senior writer at Odaily Planet Daily, Mr. Hu, emphasizes that the market might be overreacting to the effects of the Mt. Gox crash. He stresses that the most significant factors affecting future market trends are the results of the U.S. election and expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Key Takeaways:
- Recognize the situation clearly: The market is facing challenges, but it’s essential to understand the true drivers of these fluctuations.
- Give up illusions: Avoid clinging to overly optimistic expectations and be prepared for volatility.
- Operate short-term: Focus on shorter-term trading strategies and trends instead of long-term investments.
- Wait for the good news: Be patient and monitor for positive developments that might signal a market shift.
In conclusion, the current market condition demands a strategic approach, characterized by acknowledging reality, managing expectations, and adapting to short-term dynamics. The good news may be just around the corner, but it’s crucial to remain vigilant, adaptable, and prepared for any eventuality.
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