A six-month delay in US military contributions, when Congress failed earlier this year to agree on a significant aid package, opened a window for a renewed Russian offensive in the east of the country.
Now, Ukrainian forces are fighting hard to push back what may seem like a slow but inexorable Russian conquest of Ukrainian territory, kilometer by kilometer.
– The next two to three months will be the most difficult for Ukraine this year, said Michael Kofman at the Carnegie Endowment in a recent podcast.
And in the background, a new uneasiness is gaining strength: How long will the West’s political and military support continue, supplies that are of critical importance for a Ukrainian defense capability? And what does a change of president mean in the United States?
Skeptical Vice President
On Monday, former President Donald Trump chose Senator JD Vance from Ohio as his vice-presidential candidate, a man who earlier in the election campaign has expressed strong criticism of continued US aid. In February 2023, he said in a podcast that he doesn’t really care which way things go in Ukraine.
Vance wants the US to concentrate on its own problems, not a war thousands of miles away on another continent. He has admittedly said that it was a mistake for President Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine, but he was one of those who fought most persistently once morest the large aid package of 61 billion dollars that was blocked in Congress for weeks.
The delay meant that Ukraine had to intervene far into the stocks of ammunition, and that land areas on the eastern front were lost to the Russians. The Ukrainian defense is struggling with the effect of the withdrawal tactics in Congress today.
– The election of Vance is a clear signal to us, says Ukrainian elected representative Inna Sovsun from the liberal party Holos to the Financial Times.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that he is not worried regarding being pressured into negotiations Ukraine does not want. He apparently does not fear another round with Trump in the White House, despite speculation that a more Russia-friendly policy may be on the way.
Completely in line
The views of Vance are completely in line with Trump’s own. The former president has repeatedly said that if elected in November, he will resolve the conflict in Ukraine before his inauguration in January 2025. Trump has never bothered to explain how, other than to say Putin will meet with him on this as a favor to him, no one else.
And Trump is not alone among Western leaders in criticizing the conduct of the war. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has also kept a high profile in this matter. He believes that Russia’s demands for a possible peace agreement must be met with a certain understanding.
His talks with Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have caused a furor in the EU. He is Trump’s close friend, visited him in Florida following the NATO summit in Washington recently and wrote on Tuesday in a letter to EU leaders that Trump has concrete and well-thought-out peace plans for Ukraine, ready for quick implementation.
Pressing on
Russia currently controls 18 percent of Ukrainian territory. The country has not managed major conquests since Avdijivka in February. But Russian forces are pushing in the border areas: Kharkiv in the northeast, Donetsk in the east and Zaporizhzhya in the south.
Ukraine is dependent on predictable and long-term deliveries from the West and binding assurances that support will be maintained.
If Trump and Vance win the election, Ukraine will have to come up with a new strategy to communicate with the new administration, says politician Sovsun.
Vance, like Trump, wants Kyiv to give up the Russian-occupied territories to end the war. And like Trump, he criticizes Europe for being dependent on the US and NATO for its security. Vance does not like President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that the US must prioritize Ukraine. He sees this as interference in American politics.
Rottweiler
– JD Vance can be described as an aggressive attack dog who is extremely loyal to Trump. In matters of NATO and support for Ukraine, he has gone further than Trump himself, says Björn Ottosson. He is a US expert at the Total Defense Research Institute in Sweden.
The United States is the single largest donor of economic and military support to Ukraine. Vance wants Americans to turn their attention completely to the threat from China, and he wants to intervene more drastically to stop illegal immigration at the border with Mexico.
– Vance believes that support for NATO and Ukraine are disruptive elements that take the focus away from China, says Ottosson. He believes the election of Vance marks a step away from the parts of the Republican Party that still want American involvement in NATO and Ukraine.
– It is America first that applies. The election of Vance confirms that this slogan will live on even following Trump, he says.
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2024-07-19 15:41:53
