2023-10-19 16:15:31
In a press release, the National Order of Nurses (ONI) analyzes the nursing population needs for 2040 and formulates proposals to anticipate the coming demographic shock and the health needs of the population.
While the nursing population is currently present in the 1663 living areas of French territory and is recognized as one of the most accessible professions for daily care [1], the National Order of Nurses (ONI) wishes to anticipate nursing needs to cope with the aging of the population and the increase in chronic diseases. Thus, from new demographic projections, it appears that depending on the scenarios, the nursing population will grow between 37.5% and 61.7% by 2040 in the face of needs which will increase. a minima by 54%. In view of these uncertainties, and in order not to reproduce past errors in medical demography, the ONI is formulating a certain number of proposals to anticipate the future demographic shock and health needs.
Depending on the scenarios, the nursing population should reach 693,000 or 815,000 professionals in 2040
Produced by Olivier Lacoste, a geographer specializing in health issues, these demographic projections have as their starting point the 504,000 nurses registered with the National Order of Nurses in September 2023. They take into account several parameters:
- The reception capacities year after year of nursing training institutes : 38,162 nursing students were admitted in 2023/2024.
- The attrition rate of 0.75% observed by the ONI corresponding to stopping work before retirement. Indeed, even if the period of activity increases, we notice a cessation of exercise before the age of 64.
- THE graduation rate at the end of studies:
– 60.8% according to a CEFIEC study from February 2023 (taken into account in the pessimistic projection)
– 80.4% according to a DREES study of May 2023 (taken into account in the optimistic projection).
By combining these criteria, it appears that in 2040, the nursing population should reach 693,000 people in a pessimistic scenario or 815,000 people in a more optimistic scenario, well below an uncorrected projection which foresees 988,000 nurses.
Nursing needs that could increase by 54% by 2040
At the same time, by 2040, the population aged 65 and over is expected to grow by 31% leading to an increasing nursing support ratio of 3 per 100 inhabitants over 65 in 2023, has 3.7 in 2040 in the pessimistic version and at 4.3 in the optimistic version.
However, this ratio does not take into account the increase in nursing needs which could increase by 54% to care for this older, more dependent population and those with more prevalent chronic illnesses.
Such an increase in needs suggests that the nursing population will not be sufficient to properly care for all French people.
ONI’s pragmatic proposals to anticipate nursing needs
Faced with this observation and so that nurses can continue to play a central role in access and continuity of care, the ONI recommends a certain number of proposals:
1. Establish reliable statistical data to manage public policies
The State and professionals must be able to rely on the most precise demographic data possible in order to design policies adapted to the needs of the population.
One of the major challenges is to anticipate the evolution of the profession and take into account changes in the relationship at work.
The ONI also reminds that all nurses, once they are qualified – and regardless of their sector of practice (public hospital, medico-social establishment, liberal, etc.) – have the obligation to register with the Order.
2. Create IFSI places according to the needs of the population
On April 26, in the roadmap which was to mark the “100 days of appeasement”, the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, announced the opening of 2,000 additional places in the IFSI. This measure is a very good thing. However, places in IFSI are until now determined according to the reception capacity of the institutes. To be certain of having a sufficient number of professionals to support the French, it would be preferable to provide training places according to the needs of the population.
3. Establish a tutoring system to support young students from their training to their first years of practice
30% of nursing students quit during training. To respond to this problem of abandonment, the ONI recommends the establishment of a tutoring system from the IFSI to the first years of practice. The nursing profession is sometimes very hard; it is about better supporting vocations, and no longer leaving nursing students helpless in the face of human situations which can be complicated.
4. Work on the attractiveness of the profession to attract professionals and to keep professionals in activity
This proposal has several aspects including:
- Support for improving the skills of nurses within an exercise coordinated with doctors and paramedical professions. This is what should inform the work on the “nursing” decree which began recently.
- The establishment of support ratios of professionals per patient to improve the working conditions of professionals and ultimately the quality of patient care.
- Creating real career paths. In this sense, and as an example, the opening of a section in nursing sciences within the National Council of Universities will open up new perspectives.
- And finally, a reflection on the creation of a nursing sector dedicated to prevention and public health closest to patients.
For Patrick Chamboredon, President of the National Order of Nurses: “ These demographic projections aim to contribute to the debate on the organization of the health system in France. Above all, it is about anticipating the healthcare needs of the French and ensuring that they will receive quality daily care. Currently present throughout the country, nurses have a major role in access and continuity of care. Their role will be even more crucial for a population that will become older and will still want to age in place. Also, it is essential to better recognize their skills in the care pathway by giving them more autonomy.. »
The projection of the nursing population in 2040
Projection of nursing staff per 100 people aged 65 and over
[1] Ouest-France / Harmonie Mutuelle study: 26% of respondents consider it very easy to access daily care with nurses; 56% fairly easy. Results far ahead of other health professions.
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