3 hours ago
photo source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
With Ukraine controlling most of Donetsk and Zaporiza, it is unclear how a referendum on annexation of Russia will be held.
On the 20th (local time), four Russian-controlled places in Ukraine – Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporiza – called for an urgent referendum for annexation of Russia.
In recent months, Russian forces have been at a standstill and Ukrainian forces have recaptured much of the territories in the northeast. As a result, pro-Russian forces in the east and the south have come forward to immediately implement a vote on annexation of Russia starting this week.
Despite criticism from the international community, Russia has a history of annexing Crimea in the 2014 Russian annexation referendum.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin was expected to give a public address on the evening of the 20th, but a Kremlin source said the date of the speech was later postponed and the exact reason was unknown.
On the same day (20th), Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleva said, “These stupid so-called ‘referrals’ will not change anything.”
Although the international community has never acknowledged Russia’s annexation of Crimea, it is clear that Russia is trying to acquire other occupied maps in the same way.
There are also concerns that Russia’s annexation of more regions within Ukraine in this way might provide an excuse for Russia to claim that NATO weapons are attacking its territory.
Amid speculation that Russia may issue a massive mobilization order to bolster its presence in Ukraine, the Russian Federation has approved stronger penalties for crimes such as desertion, destruction of military property, and mobilization orders and disobedience during combat operations.
Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian National Security Council, said on the 20th that holding a referendum in the Donbas region, which refers to the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, would set “historical justice” right.
“If even the constitution of Russia is amended, no future Russian leader or bureaucrat will be able to overturn this decision,” he said.
Shortly therefollowing, the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR)’ and the ‘Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR)’, declared by pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region, announced that they would hold a referendum on the 23rd and 27th. On February 21, three days before Russia invaded Ukraine in earnest, President Putin recognized the two powers as independent states.
The Russian administration in the southern Kherson region has also announced that it will hold a referendum, with similar plans in the Russian-occupied Zaporiza region.
Russian state media reported that residents would be able to vote in person or remotely.
Over the past few months, Russian-established administrative authorities have been trying to hold a self-proclaimed “referendum”. However, there is no hope that such a vote will be conducted freely and fairly, and as the war prolongs, attempts to annex territories not fully under Russian control also appear unrealistic.
In addition, the Ukrainian counterattack has made it increasingly difficult to conduct voting.
In fact, Russia has occupied most of Lugansk Oblast since July, but on the 19th, the Ukrainian military leader in Lugansk announced that it had recaptured Vilohorivka.
The situation in eastern Ukraine as of 9:00 pm GMT on the 19th. The area in purple is the reclaimed land of Ukraine.
Although Russia occupied the coast of Azov, most of Donetsk is still controlled by Ukraine.
In addition, although Russia quickly occupied Kherson at the beginning of the war, Ukrainian forces also reclaimed some territories from Kherson, and the Russian-established administrative authorities continue to be under attack. In response, Kherson recently tried to hold a referendum on annexation of Russia, but it was delayed.
In Zaporiza, most of the territory, including the capital Zaporiza, is still controlled by Ukraine.
However, the international community widely recognizes the 2014 vote as illegal, and the Russian military remains in control of Crimea despite many residents’ refusal.
The Ukrainian army is now not far from Donetsk, and the pro-Russian mayor of Donetsk said on the 19th that at least 13 people were killed in the Ukrainian artillery shelling.
As Russia attempts to annex Ukraine-controlled territories, the Ukrainian leadership will be outraged, and hopes of finding a solution through negotiations become slimmer.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian defense adviser Oleksi Kopitko said the voting scheme was “a sign of hysteria” by Russia. On the same night, President Volodymyr Zelensky also said that “the occupiers were clearly in a state of panic.”
In addition, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it “absurd,” and French President Emmanuel Macron condemned it as “self-interested behavior” and “teasing”, which would certainly not be recognized by the international community. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also said it was illegal and “a escalating form of Putin’s war”.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a renowned Russian expert analyst, said the move was “an obvious ultimatum” from Russia to Ukraine and the West, and that if it did not respond appropriately, Russia might mobilize all its forces in the war.
If the territories were annexed, they might assert the right to use weapons to defend what he considers his territory.
In some regions of Russia, there are growing calls to mobilize troops. Putin still describes the war as a “special military operation”.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin seems likely to support holding referendums in occupied territories. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: “From the beginning of the war, Russia has wanted the people to decide.
