Have we ever been so close to a war with Russia on the borders of Europe? This is obviously the question that everyone has been asking since the resurgence of tensions on the outskirts of Ukraine. For the professor of international relations Tanguy Struye, “it is clearly the first time in 30 years and since the end of the Cold War that we have such significant tensions which might lead to a war in the region”. The guest recalls, however, that the war has in fact already existed since 2014 between Russians and Ukrainians, but that it remained very hidden.
Can we therefore already speak of a new Cold War between Russians and Americans? Tanguy Struye is cautious with analogies. “What is certain is that the competition between the great powers is back. It is therefore an opposition between the United States and Russia, but it is also China. This conflict is in any case bad news for all that is governance, all that is cooperation between great powers. And this goes for security issues but it will also probably apply to climate change issues, etc. “
“Occupy a country like Ukraine with 100,000 men, they will not succeed”
Russia has already placed 100,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, but will it really invade and when? “Difficult to answer”, says Tanguy Struye. “Because in the end, it’s Putin who will make the decision. But diplomatic pressure is important because the fact of amassing so many thousands of men allows Putin to put himself in a position of strength, at least at the military level. Afterwards, 100,000 men is a lot and a little. It’s a very large number, but to occupy a country like Ukraine with 100,000 men, they will not succeed. The goal here is obviously to ensure that Ukraine is unstable. One possible scenario is to invade part of Ukraine to create a buffer zone that they might secure.”
“From the Russian point of view, Europe is decadent”
The professor returns to the various reasons why Russia is seeking to invade Ukraine. “There is automatically a revenge on the part of the Russians in relation to the end of the Cold War and a certain humiliation. We have also seen it in several speeches by Putin in recent years”. But for Tanguy Struye, the main reason is elsewhere. “Russia’s priority in relation to Ukraine is to have a sphere of influence that secures Moscow. Whether it is in relation to NATO from a security point of view or in relation to the enlargement of the European Union from the point of view of democratic values. Because Russia remains very conservative. Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia are therefore very important countries for the Russians in order to create a buffer zone between the Western empire and the Russian empire. Because from the Russian point of view, Europe is decadent. It should be known that in the Kremlin or in the editorials of the Russian media, they condemn European progressive values. Some of Putin’s advisers go besides, going so far as to explain to the Russians that we have allowed marriages between men and animals in our country. It goes so far to discredit the West and the Western model. Putin is therefore afraid that Russia will evolve, as a bit of Belgium, on abortion, gay marriage… Since 2016 by the way rs, Russia has regained control of everything that is media and internet, to prevent Western ideology from reaching the Russian population.”
In addition to these two aspects, there is also the prestige and the desire to be among the great nations. “The two great powers of tomorrow will be the Americans and the Chinese. A country like Russia is looking for itself between these two great powers”, says our guest. “Russia has gone through a great period and then a decline. And Putin wants to come back a bit among the greats. So it’s a desire to be respected, for prestige, for reputation. For the moment, Putin is coming by force to showing that Russia is an important player. From there to showing that it is respected by NATO, the Americans or the Europeans, that remains another discussion because it will depend on the outcome of the negotiations”.
“Macron plays the unilateral card too much”
And Europe in all this? The professor of international relations at UC Louvain explains that she plays a role within NATO. “The Americans consult a lot with the Europeans, especially France, Germany and the Baltic countries”, specifies Tanguy Struye.
However, he points to the role played by French President Emmanuel Macron in the conflict. “Now, if we take the European Union as such, we see that the European institutions are quite absent from the negotiations. We therefore do not see Ursula Von der Leyen or Charles Michel at the forefront. Why? One of the reasons The main ones is that the presidency is currently in the hands of the French and that they are taking the initiative. Macron thus surprised 10 days ago by starting discussions in a somewhat unilateral way, which moreover somewhat surprised everyone The Macron method, by playing the unilateral card, has suddenly created a lot of confusion and that is what the Russians expect: that there are divisions between European countries, NATO, the United States. So it was an opportunity for the Russians. I think that France, through Macron, also wanted to show that it exists and that’s a bit what I blame the French for: we tend to forget that sometimes here in Belgium or in Europe because it is believed that France always defends the European interests but in fact France always defends its interests first. France sometimes tends to forget that Europe is 27 countries.”