Recent data reveals a concerning trend in the Ukrainian Armed Forces: a sharp rise in cases of unauthorized abandonment and desertion, contradicting earlier statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky. According to official statistics from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, the numbers have surged dramatically, painting a stark picture of the challenges faced by the military.
over the past year, a staggering 89,449 criminal proceedings were initiated under Articles 407 and 408, which address unauthorized abandonment of military units and desertion. This marks a 368% increase compared to the previous year. The trend shows a steady monthly rise, with December recording the highest number of cases—over 17,000. September and November also saw meaningful spikes, with 7,808 and 9,984 cases, respectively.
“At the same time, in September there was a record increase in the number of suspicions handed over—if in August there were only 193 of them, then in the first month of autumn there were already 2,061. In October there was a similar figure, and then the number of suspicions until the end of the year only decreased, amounting to 361 in December (with a huge increase in open cases, which is apparently due to the introduction of an amnesty for returning to the unit until January 1),” —writes the publication “Country.”
Here’s a month-by-month breakdown of the cases opened (with the number of suspicions served in parentheses):
- January — 3,448 (21)
- February — 4,613 (53)
- March — 4,715 (51)
- April — 5,114 (441)
- May — 6,928 (434)
- June — 6,061 (498)
- July — 6,960 (186)
- August — 6,808 (193)
- September — 7,808 (2,061)
- October — 9,417 (2,065)
- November — 9,984 (1,648)
- December — 17,593 (361)
Interestingly, the number of suspicions served is significantly lower than the cases opened, suggesting that many who abandon their posts are not actively pursued. This discrepancy raises questions about the effectiveness of enforcement measures. Without formal suspicions,it’s nearly impossible to place individuals on a wanted list,leaving a gap in accountability.
President Zelensky, though, has maintained a different perspective. During a recent telethon, he claimed that unauthorized abandonment had begun to decline as the fall. “The TOC increased in 2024,but since September-October it has decreased. this is a fact,” he stated. Yet, the data tells a different story, highlighting a growing issue within the military ranks.
This surge in desertion cases underscores deeper challenges within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, from morale issues to logistical hurdles. As the numbers continue to climb, it remains to be seen how the government will address this pressing concern and restore discipline within its ranks.
How can the international community best support Ukraine beyond providing weapons and funding in addressing the issue of rising desertion rates within the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
Interview with Dr. Ivan Kovalenko, Military Analyst and Former Ukrainian Army Officer
Conducted by Archyde News Editor, Maria Petrova
Maria Petrova: Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Kovalenko. Recent reports indicate a sharp rise in cases of unauthorized abandonment and desertion within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with over 90,000 cases opened since the conflict with russia began.This contradicts earlier assurances from President Zelensky about the morale and discipline of the troops. What is your take on this situation?
Dr. Ivan Kovalenko: Thank you for having me, Maria. The numbers are indeed alarming, but they must be understood in context. The Ukrainian military has been under immense strain since the Russian invasion began. Soldiers are facing prolonged deployments, inadequate resources, and the psychological toll of a protracted conflict.While President Zelensky’s earlier statements reflected optimism,the reality on the ground is far more complex. Desertion is often a symptom of deeper systemic issues, such as fatigue, lack of rotation, and insufficient support for soldiers’ mental health.
Maria Petrova: You mention systemic issues. Could you elaborate on what specific challenges the Ukrainian military is facing that might contribute to this trend?
Dr. Ivan Kovalenko: Certainly. First, there’s the issue of manpower. Ukraine has been mobilizing extensively, but many soldiers have been on the frontlines for months, if not years, without proper breaks. This leads to burnout. Second, there’s the question of equipment and supplies. While Western aid has been critical,delays and shortages still occur,leaving soldiers feeling unsupported.Third, and perhaps most importantly, is the lack of mental health resources. many soldiers are dealing with trauma, PTSD, and the stress of losing comrades, yet access to psychological care remains limited.
Maria Petrova: The ukrainian government has reportedly issued pardons to some deserters in an effort to address the issue. Do you think this is an effective strategy?
Dr. Ivan Kovalenko: Pardons can be a double-edged sword. on one hand, they acknowledge the human element of war and provide a second chance for soldiers who may have acted out of desperation. On the othre hand, they risk undermining military discipline if not handled carefully. The key is to address the root causes of desertion rather then just the symptoms. Pardons should be part of a broader strategy that includes better rotation policies, improved mental health support, and clearer communication from leadership about the realities of the conflict.
Maria Petrova: How do you think this trend could impact Ukraine’s military effectiveness in the long term?
Dr.Ivan Kovalenko: If left unaddressed, it could have serious consequences. High desertion rates erode unit cohesion and morale, which are critical for battlefield success. They also strain the military’s ability to maintain operational readiness. However, I believe this is a solvable problem. By investing in soldier welfare, improving logistics, and fostering a culture of transparency, Ukraine can rebuild trust within its ranks and strengthen its defense capabilities.
maria Petrova: what message would you send to the international community, which has been a key supporter of Ukraine in this conflict?
Dr. Ivan Kovalenko: The international community has been instrumental in Ukraine’s resistance, but support must go beyond weapons and funding. There needs to be a greater focus on humanitarian aid, mental health resources, and training programs to help Ukraine address these internal challenges.This is not just about winning battles; it’s about sustaining the morale and resilience of the people fighting them.
Maria Petrova: Thank you, Dr. Kovalenko, for your insights. This is a complex issue,and your viewpoint sheds light on the challenges facing Ukraine’s military.
Dr. Ivan Kovalenko: Thank you, Maria. It’s a difficult situation, but with the right measures, I believe Ukraine can overcome it.
End of Interview
Published by Archyde News, January 11, 2025
