Europe’s New Shield: How Ukraine Can Become Europe’s Deterrent
The future of transatlantic security hangs in the balance. With another potential Trump administration on the horizon, the enduring US commitment to Europe’s defense is being seriously questioned. While America holds the undisputed mantle of military might, it’s clear that Europe needs a credible unconventional deterrent in the near future, overnight policy shifts are simply not feasible.
Enter Ukraine: war-torn yet resolute, bloodied but unbowed. If Ukraine emerges from this conflict largely intact, it will likely be one of the most experienced and lethal conventional land forces on the European continent. The scars of this brutal war will leave a profound impact, but also forge a fighting force with unparalleled experience in combined arms warfare, seasoned through countless real-world encounters with one of the world’s largest militaries. Ukrainian victories come not just from grit and strategic planning, but from technological prowess, too. They have demonstrated expertise in integrating diverse weaponry, utilizing both Western-supplied and homegrown technologies to devastating effect.
Ukraine’s capabilities strike fear into the heart of Russia.
While Moscow’s advances have caused indeed inflicted a tremendous loss of life for Ukraine – pushing well above 600,000 casualties – they are meager and agonizingly slow. Russia, though a major military power on paper, is not the force it once was. Russia’s botched invasion demonstrates a lack of strategic foresight questionable strategic decision making, and a military machine crippled by corruption and internal issues.
If US arms flows to Ukraine were to dry up again – a possibility under a new Presidential administration – the situation becomes dire. Russia would quickly attempt to capitalize on any perceived weakness or hesitation, pushing for negotiations from a position of strength forcefully seizing more Ukrainian territory . This would leave Ukraine vulnerable. The threat of this diminished support would be immense, potentially forcing Ukraine into a desperate struggle or pushing it towards some form of capitulation.
Europe’s vulnerability under these circumstances would be stark. A weakened NATO, crippled by the absence of reliable American backing, would face a reinforced and emboldened Russia prepared to test the limits of European resolve. The hope that deploying a significant amount of resources to reach a figure of American military strength would deter Russia might well be wishful thinking.
History has shown that diplomacy without the backing of military might risks being viewed as weakness, inviting further aggression rather than deterring it.
Russia carefully calculates risks and rewards, and currently sees a palpable lack of synchronicity, unity, and decisive commitment among European nations. This lack of unity risks providing a green light for further Russian aggression. While Europe possesses pockets of strong military capabilities, the crucial element of having a unified front and strategic coherence when facing a hostile Russia remains precarious at best.
Europe’s weakness in the matter of Ukraine would not only be a military one but a political and economic one too. The absence of a clear shared objective, coupled with varying threat perceptions across the continent could lead to a dangerous fragmentation.
But Ukraine offers a solution: seasoned by struggle, battle-hardened by facing the Russian military, it offers Europe a ready-made alternative.
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, during his recent visits to Western capitals, laid out a five-point plan – a blueprint for the future, where Ukraine plays a critical role in securing Europe. This “Victory Plan” offers Ukraine as a bulwark against future aggression.
The key components of the plan lay out a clear path forward. An invitation to NATO provides a strong signal in terms of future security partnerships that
