2024-02-29 05:51:02
In the atmosphere of war between Russia and Ukraine, Kiev is preparing to launch a “second counterattack.” On Wednesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu asked military companies to accelerate the supply of defense systems to the forces, a day after Paris announced the formation of an alliance to supply Ukraine with medium- and long-range missiles.
In their comments to Sky News Arabia regarding these developments, two researchers, a Russian and a Ukrainian, suggested that a strong Ukrainian attack (a second counterattack) would take place, monitoring the indicators leading to this and the conditions for its success after the first attack failed to achieve most of its goals.
On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the formation of a new coalition of countries in Europe to supply Ukraine with medium- and long-range missiles and bombs, saying: “We are convinced that defeating Russia is necessary for security and stability in Europe.”
He added to this during a press conference at the Elysee Palace, following the international conference in support of Ukraine that was held in Paris, and included presidents and heads of government of countries in Europe, by saying that sending ground forces in the future “there is no consensus about it, but nothing can be ruled out.”
However, on the same day, Washington, London, Berlin, NATO, and others expressed their rejection of the idea of sending forces, and the Kremlin responded by warning that sending forces to Ukraine “would not be in the interest of these countries at all.”
Russian action
A day later, on Wednesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement that its Minister, Sergei Shoigu, asked manufacturers to accelerate the supply of a number of military systems to the forces, during his working trip to the forces of the Western Military District.
It was stated in the statement:
- Shoigu visited the company “NBO Strela”, which manufactures anti-battery radar, and the company “NBO Splav”, which produces multi-purpose missiles and projectiles.
- “Strela” doubled the production of artillery reconnaissance systems this year, and will increase it four-fold in 2025, as a result of purchasing new equipment and moving to a 12-hour work shift.
- The Sablav Corporation, the most important producer of rocket launchers, also increased the production of missiles by 4 times, of specific types, by 7 times.
- Shoigu demanded adjusting the delivery schedule to the troops, shifting the timing of transfer of equipment to the second and third quarters, as well as maintaining a uniform supply of weapons throughout the year.
- “Instructions have been prepared on everything related to the allocation of funds, determination and approval of schedules for the delivery of MLRS missiles and missiles, the vehicles themselves, as well as the launchers,” Shoigu said.
New counterattack
In light of Ukraine’s new promises, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that his country had prepared a “clear” plan for a new counterattack on Russian forces, but he said he could not reveal the details.
Kiev launched its first counterattack in June 2023, but it did not achieve its ambitious goals of recovering the lands that Russia controlled in the south and east during the war that broke out in February 2022, as well as the areas it annexed to its sovereignty, including the Crimean Peninsula.
Deep strikes…and the longest hand
In the estimation of the director of the Moscow-based GSM Center for Research and Studies, Asif Melhem, “the idea of preparing Ukraine to carry out a new counterattack has matured. Talk that F-16 fighters will be presented to Kiev to carry out an attack next year began at the end of the summer of last year.” “.
Melhem bases his conclusion on several indicators:
- Ukrainian pilots are currently training on this plane, which is considered a “long arm” that reaches deep into Russia.
- NATO is planning an attack with Ukraine in the near future, when special types of weapons and equipment are provided, including “Taurus” missiles that are launched from Tornado fighters (British – German – Italian), the American “Hornet”, and the Swedish “Gerben”. While it cannot be launched from the Su-24 fighters available in Ukraine.
- The number of MiG-29 fighters in Ukraine is not large, and these fighters need modifications to be able to launch these missiles.
According to Western reports, preparations are underway to deliver F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, and Sweden will be able to provide Western aircraft after joining NATO.
Timing and supplies
For his part, Alexandrovich Yevgeny, a military specialist at the Ukrainian National Institute, agrees that Kiev is already considering launching another counterattack, anticipating that it will depend primarily on preventing Russian forces from penetrating the eastern front.
He attributed this to the fact that Russia’s current goal is to expand as much as possible on the eastern front, and to seize all of the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, to protect the Russian depth from attacks by Ukrainian marches, as Kiev still controls about half of Donetsk.
According to Yevgeny, the success of the next counterattack depends on the following:
- After the fall of many cities at a rapid pace over the past months, it is necessary to review military plans.
- More Western support is required, which has been affected by events in the Middle East and economic conditions in Europe.
- The speed of sending missiles and missiles to the Ukrainian army to stop the Russian incursion, and President Zelensky confirmed that the situation on the front was “extremely difficult.” Due to the delay in the arrival of Western military support supplies.
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