2023-05-19 03:04:49
They know that a large number of them risk perishing in the coming battles or being seriously injured. Across Ukraine, tens of thousands of men – and women – nonetheless got involved this winter. They have since been training hard to participate in the reconquest of the territories of their nation invaded by Russia since February 24, 2022, or even since 2014 – the beginning of the conquest by pro-Russian movements assisted by Moscow of Crimea and part of of the Donbass, in the East.
This reconquest, within the framework of a vast counter-offensive which might, in theory, be launched in the near future but of which all the details are secret, is confronted with the need to resolve a problem of human resources. We need fighters for war. Less crucial than that of the weapons and ammunition claimed from the Western allies, the question is nonetheless one of the pivots of future military events.
Classified as secret, the losses suffered for fifteen months by the Ukrainian forces are now estimated at around 100,000, a figure comprising a minority of killed and a majority of wounded unable to take up arms once more. “In theory, to succeed on offense, you need a ratio of three to one in favor of the attacker, says military analyst Oleksiy Melnik of the Razumkov Center think tank. But in reality, it’s not just the raw numbers that matter. Many factors are more important than the number of men, guns or armor. »
Create the surprise
The level of technology, the morale of the troops and the ability to surprise the adversary can take on more importance than simple numerical data on manpower. “There will be elements of surprise [durant la contre-offensive] for our adversaryemphasizes once more Oleksii Melnik. It is, of course, not necessary to repeat the methods previously used during the Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensives [à l’automne 2022]. I am sure that innovative approaches will be used. »
“Our enemy will have more and more surprises”, confirms the commander of Viï, a reconnaissance squadron which has just returned from four months of training in the United Kingdom. The tall man, surrounded by two comrades also masked and armed with assault rifles, met by chance in a town near the Russian border, explains that he is not authorized to speak in the media . Created in the spring of 2023, Viï is part of a galaxy of units depending, in all discretion, on the structure of the Northern Operational Command.
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