Weakened by a dragging war in Ukraine, Putin might be forced to step down, while finding ways not to concede defeat.
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If this war lasts too long, and if the Russian leader makes the decision to withdraw from the conflict, his image will be tarnished.
“The two Donbass republics are called the “Independent Republics of Eastern Ukraine”, explains Guillaume Lavoie, associate member of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, on air on LCN. And this represents a form of small victory, because Russia has already broadened its aura in this part of the country.
This invasion of influence might then represent a small victory for Vladimir Putin, if he wishes to maintain a good opinion of his people.
“If ever we were to try to find a way for Mr. Putin to save face, it might be where at least he might say he made some gains”, supposes the expert
To hold on, the Ukrainian forces will need the support of Western nations, because the latter do not want to intervene directly.
To advance the conflict in the direction of Ukraine, it would “probably have to do even more of everything that we are already doing. Send weapons, money, because Ukraine must continue to function,” said Mr. Lavoie.
While Western forces are providing ever more powerful weapons to the Ukrainian government, Russia for its part is also improving its arsenal. She recently tested a hypersonic missile, for example.
“They would have already used it to strike, and NATO’s response was to provide anti-missile missiles,” relates the associate member of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
The question of a possible use of atomic weapons is unlikely. “It’s expensive to use atomic weapons, in international solidarity,” concludes Guillaume Lavoie.
Find the full interview with Guillaume Lavoie, associate member of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in the video above.
