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Should the West make concessions to Russia to stop the attacks on Ukraine? According to experts, peace at the negotiating table is basically possible – but the hurdles are high.
Reginold believes negotiations with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin should be an option.
imago images / ZUMA Wire
A delegation of Ukrainians, pictured President Vladimir Zelenskiy, met with a delegation from Russia – without success.
Archyde.com
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The war in Ukraine is getting bloodier. The West reacts to this with arms deliveries.
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German politician Sahra Wagenknecht is now calling for talks with Moscow to at least be considered.
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There is nothing fundamentally wrong with that, say Swiss experts. Achieving peace at the round table is unlikely, however.
The German left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht recently reaped a storm of indignation. «Apparently, Putin’s main demands for the end of the war are the demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine. It would be a serious mistake if the German and French governments did not support talks to stop the escalation and bloodshed on this basis.” Wagenknecht wrote on Twitter on Tuesday.
Remo Reginold, Director of the Swiss Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA), on the other hand, understands Wagenknecht’s considerations: “In a war, the option of negotiations should always be there,” he says. Because at the moment the West is reacting with power-political rhetoric similar to that of Putin. “The difference is that the NATO countries are not waging the war themselves, but simply arming Ukraine as proxies.”
«Russia demands a neutral Ukraine»
For Reginold it is quite likely that a solution might be found at the negotiating table to end the war in which both sides might save face: “What Russia – currently with its military power – is demanding is a neutral Ukraine. The country should not move closer to either the EU or NATO.”
That has basically been decided since the 1990s, says Reginold. The West just doesn’t really stick to it with the eastward expansion of NATO. “As much as I condemn the war in Ukraine, Putin is reinforcing a demand that he and his predecessors have been making for over 20 years. This narrative is stringent, even if it should definitely be questioned.”
“Switzerland hardly interests Russia”
According to Reginold, the fact that there is currently only “Russia is evil” rhetoric is problematic: “Of course, the attack should be condemned in the strongest possible terms. But it’s not just black and white.” Unfortunately, the West has also repeatedly violated international law in the past. Examples of a breach of international law by NATO and the USA were the Balkan and Iraq wars.
Although Reginold would welcome talks with Russia, he sees little chance of success. Switzerland plays at most a subordinate role: “Whether Switzerland accepts the EU sanctions once morest Russia or not was certainly an important decision for us. Putin is unlikely to have been interested in that. His message is aimed at the big geopolitical players, i.e. the USA and China.”
«Moscow and Kyiv might agree»
The Swiss diplomat Tim Guldimann is more skeptical regarding talks with Putin: «There is nothing fundamentally wrong with that. But the central principle is that an agreement with Moscow can only be reached on the basis of international law,” he says. With the annexation of Crimea and later the invasion of Ukraine, Putin broke international law several times. For Guldimann, it would therefore be wrong to make concessions to the Russian ruler simply because of the military force in Ukraine and the threat to all of Europe.
According to Guldimann, such a concession would be, for example, the subsequent recognition of the annexation of Crimea under international law. “It would be theoretically possible, on the other hand, if Moscow and Kyiv agreed on moving the borders on the basis of international law. Both sides might also agree on the future security policy status of Ukraine, for example on guaranteed non-membership of NATO.”
«Putin’s plan hasn’t worked out until today»
“If you find any way to agree on a peaceful settlement of this war in mutual respect, that would of course be to everyone’s advantage,” says Guldimann. But: “First and foremost, this requires flexibility from Russia and the willingness to respect internationally recognized treaties and, above all, to explicitly recognize the sovereignty of Ukraine. The West might also talk to Moscow regarding what mistakes the West made at the end of the Cold War.”
“Putin’s first strategy was to quickly march to Kyiv and oust Zelensky’s government. To this day, this plan has not worked out,” says Guldimann. “The war massively threatens the security of all of Europe and will probably create a nasty confrontation between an isolated Russia and the western EU and NATO for years to come. What we are currently witnessing is a radical change in the European map. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to have reached a broader audience, not even in all the consequences for our country.”
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