published17. September 2022, 10:48
Ukraine war“If Putin is overthrown or killed, Russia threatens to sink into chaos”
Vladimir Putin may have few friends internationally, but according to one expert his position of power in his own country is still secure. But if Putin makes serious mistakes, uprisings might break out.
Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. However, according to Dubowy, Putin cannot expect much help from him.
AFP
On the contrary: Beijing dictates the terms of the gas supply contracts between Russia and China. China will exploit Russia’s weakness, says Dubovy.
REUTERS
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Vladimir Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. But they are not allies, says Eastern Europe expert Alexander Dubowy. The meeting is symbolic.
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In general, Putin has hardly any friends internationally. In his own country, his position of power is currently still secure.
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According to the expert, the Russian elite is dependent on Putin.
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It might become tricky for Putin if the population in the big cities forfeits their standard of living – then civilly motivated protests cannot be ruled out.
Vladimir Putin met with Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan on Wednesday. Will China support Russia in the war?
China does not want to intervene in this war. Economic support is also limited. Although China does not support the western sanctions, it does little to enable Russia to circumvent them. Chinese companies are gradually withdrawing from Russia, such as Huawei. The meeting is more symbolic in nature.
What other allies does Russia have?
Actually none. At least none who are willing to bear the consequences of this war and take responsibility for it. The closest ally, Belarus, is simply too dependent to pursue its own policies. And since attacks on Ukraine are also taking place from Belarus, the country is actually a war party. Not even North Korea wants to get involved in this war. They sell arms to Russia, but we won’t see North Korean fighters or troops in this war. Russia’s ally Kazakhstan also gave Putin a clear rejection on Tuesday, fearing American sanctions. And in the South Caucasus, Putin is in danger of losing face because he doesn’t rush to help Armenia.
“Russia threatens to become an appendage and energy supplier of China and India.”
But China buys gas from Russia?
Yes. But first, the infrastructure for gas deliveries to China must first be expanded. And secondly, China knows very well: apart from China and India, Russia has hardly any other alternatives for selling its gas. Beijing is therefore likely to have dictated the terms of the new gas supply contracts between Russia and China. Russia threatens to become the appendage and energy supplier of China and India.
So Putin hardly has any friends abroad. And domestically?
Domestically, Putin’s position of power is undisputed. A large majority supports the «special military operation». There are two groups of elites: those who support war and those who insist on compromise. In the second, much smaller group are the people who keep Russia’s economy running. Both groups got rich from Putin and both groups need Putin as judge and arbitrator. If they overthrew him or killed him, Russia would be thrown into chaos. Then a civil war would not be excluded.
Recently, however, more and more oppositional voices have been raised.
Yes. But that is comparable to when a municipal council in Switzerland demands the resignation of a federal councillor. These people show incredible courage because they know that if they publicly oppose Putin, they can pay with their lives. Politically, however, they are meaningless.
«Socially motivated uprisings can be dangerous for Putin. A mobilization would be the end of the Russian ability to suffer.”
How do the defeats in the war change the mood in Russia?
The war in Ukraine interests the majority of Russians regarding as much as the war in Afghanistan, namely almost not at all. While Russia in Ukraine suffered the greatest military defeat in recent history, apart from the Chechen war, the anniversary was celebrated in Moscow, with people singing, dancing and laughing.
So Putin’s position of power cannot falter at all?
Yet. Socially motivated uprisings can certainly be dangerous for him. That is why general mobilization is not an option for Putin either: it would mean that fathers, brothers and sons would be drafted into the war. At that point, at the latest, the Russian capacity for suffering would be finished and there would be uprisings. The same might happen if the population’s standard of living were severely reduced by the Western sanctions that are now beginning to take effect.