2024-10-14 02:00:00
By not creating enough weapons on its territory to counter Russia, does the EU risk losing everything in Ukraine if it is abandoned by the United States?
In an interview presented on October 12 in the international edition of the TV5 Monde news bulletin, the former French army officer, Guillaume Ancel, who has published several books and is quoted regularly in many media, said that there would be a competition between the front in Ukraine and that in the Middle East. According to him, the only real arms supplier to Ukraine would be the United States, a country which currently reserves most of its arms stock for Israel, reducing supplies to Ukraine, which would put this country in great difficulty.
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Although it is two and a half years since the start of the war in Ukraine, the European military industry would never have really been mobilized and the defense of Europe would be heavily dependent on the United States. Despite numerous speeches, the Europeans would therefore not have really become aware of the issues and the importance of this war since they would not mobilize their industrial resources and would therefore never have taken over in the supply of weapons. Other authors point out that on the European continent, outside of Russia, the incentive to develop a war economy would run up against markets and the resilience of trade.
However, the loss of the war in Ukraine could have very serious consequences according to Pierre Lellouche, the author of“Gears. The Ukrainian War and the Shifting of the World ». For him, the post-Ukrainian war would determine the future of Europe and its institutions. In the absence of a good assessment of the situation, after having missed the war in Ukraine, which could have been avoided, the Europeans would therefore have gone to miss the peace that would follow. Unable to provide the necessary military equipment, they therefore risk ending up with a Ukraine having lost Donbass and Crimea. It would be an economically ruined country devastated by war, possibly politically unstable, but also the leading military power in Europe because of all the aid received. Only one real way to change the situation would remain, which is to help Ukraine win the war.
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The evidence seems to be accumulating to show a Europe vassalized by the United States in terms of defense and overwhelmed by events. In a text published on October 12 on its website, the Atlantico Network wonders if Zelensky’s new tour in Europe was a marathon for nothing. The Ukrainian president who visited London, Paris, Germany and Italy came back with nothing of substance. Although he received in Croatia, during the summit with the States of South-Eastern Europe on October 9, the diplomatic support of 12 heads of state and government from the Balkans and the Black Sea, the Ukrainian president did not brought back additional financial aid. In short, if the United States cuts its military support, Ukraine could be forced into capitulation and Russia would have a window to recover through violence, or fear, several lost pieces of the USSR. Only a Russian defeat would be able to shake it. The war in Ukraine seems to mark the future eastern border of the European Union.
The way proposed by Guillaume Ancel to improve the situation should therefore be studied seriously and quickly. Europe should do as in aeronautics and create something resembling a defense Airbus capable of bringing together all European capabilities, which would be very important considering the defense budgets of all member countries. The goal would be to increase Ukraine’s military supplies to allow it to have enough tactical advantages on the ground to prevent the Russians from advancing, forcing them to negotiate an end to the war. This would create a moment where a negotiation might not be seen as a capitulation for both sides. The defeat of Ukraine would be a guaranteed catastrophe for Europe. Europeans should realize that it might not be the same for the United States and that their condition as a military vassal could lead to their downfall.
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Michel Gourd
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