In September 2020, a U.S. Army main battle tank M1 Abrams is loaded onto a train and passes through Mokaba railway station in Lithuania. AFP Yonhap News
About 100 tanks are scheduled to be deployed to the Ukrainian front as the US and Germany have officially provided their main tanks after controversy. However, it is pointed out that the amount is insufficient to reverse the charter. Ukraine is requesting additional long-range missiles and fighter jets in addition to tanks, so a similar controversy is likely to recur.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on the 25th (local time) that the United States and Germany would provide support for 31 M1 Abrams and 14 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, respectively.
Ukraine needs more Western tanks to gain a clear advantage in ground warfare. According to the New York Times (NYT), the West has agreed to provide at least 105 tanks by this day, which is one-third of the 300 that Ukraine has requested. David Silvay, a military expert and professor at Cornell University, told the New York Times, “If the West provides 500 to 1,000 units, the situation can change.”
The number that can be deployed right now is also limited. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it would take three to four months to deliver the German Leopard 2. Abrams is also expected to take several months to deploy as the US plans to procure new tanks instead of stock. This could make it difficult to deploy prior to a Russian attack on the eastern Bahmut region. Ukraine expects Russia to mobilize an additional 50,000 troops for a general offensive in the spring or summer.
Currently, only 14 Challenger 2s, the British main battle tank, 14 Leopard 2s owned by Poland, and 4 and 8 Leopard 2s owned by Portugal and Norway respectively, are expected to be deployed in the near future.
As Ukraine, which has succeeded in securing its main tank through diplomatic pressure, demands more powerful weapons from the West, there is a possibility that controversy similar to tank support will recur over support for fighter jets such as the ATACMS (ATACMS) and F16 surface-to-surface missiles.
President Zelensky mentioned support for long-range missiles and aircraft, saying that “progress must also be made on other aspects of defense cooperation.” He also said that he had spoken with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in this regard. Ukraine Defense Ministry adviser Yuri Sak said, “The Hill is expected to be supported with the latest Western aircraft, such as the F16.”
Frank St. John, chief operating officer (COE) of Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F16, told the Financial Times on the same day, “There is a lot of support for the F16 in Ukraine through third-party transfers by countries that have US-made F16s to re-export them to Ukraine. Talks are coming and going,” he said, adding that Lockheed Martin plans to increase production of the F16 in preparation for a third party transfer to support Ukraine.
The Pentagon has maintained its position that support for long-range missiles and fighter jets with a range of more than 300 km capable of striking the Russian mainland is unnecessary. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also reaffirmed his stance that “there is no fighter support.” On the other hand, Dutch Foreign Minister Bofker Hoekstra said on the 19th that he would review the F16 request with an ‘open mind’ and that there was no taboo on aid.