In a significant escalation of the ongoing conflict, Ukraine launched six long-range missiles supplied by the United States into Russia’s Bryansk region, marking its first use of these advanced weapons on Russian soil since the war began nearly one thousand days ago, according to statements from Moscow.
This deployment of the Army Tactical Missile System, commonly referred to as ATACMS, coincides with Russian President Vladimir Putin taking a momentous step by officially reducing the threshold for nuclear weapons usage, signaling that Moscow might consider a nuclear response to any conventional military action from a nation backed by a nuclear power, potentially including the United States’ support for Ukraine.
In a recent show of military might, a Telegram channel associated with the Ukrainian military shared a video portraying the launch of US-supplied ATACMS missiles from an undisclosed location within Ukraine. However, the Associated Press has not been able to independently confirm the authenticity of the video, nor the specifics regarding its date and location.
The ramifications of these developments represent a concerning new chapter in a conflict that has consistently elevated international tensions. Recent communications from US officials have indicated frustration regarding Russia’s enlistment of North Korean troops to bolster its forces against Ukraine. This has only intensified in the wake of the United States easing restrictions on ATACMS in recent days, further inflaming the situation.
As the war reaches the 1000-day milestone, scrutiny has intensified regarding its trajectory and potential resolutions, particularly with the impending entry of US President-elect Donald Trump into the White House in approximately two months. Trump has publicly vowed to expedite peace negotiations and criticized the financial commitments made by the US in support of Ukraine’s cause.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine can sustain the war for an extended period, as per analysts, despite Russia possessing broader resources to prolong the conflict. Ukrainian forces are currently facing intense pressure along the approximately 1000km front line, where their troops are remarkably overextended. In addition to military strains, Ukrainian civilians continue to endure relentless assaults from Russian drones and missiles.
In a recent nocturnal operation, Ukraine claimed it successfully targeted a military weapons depot within the Bryansk region of Russia, although the specifics regarding the weaponry employed in the strike remain unclear. The Ukrainian General Staff detailed that multiple explosions reverberated in the Karachev area as a result of the attack.
When asked about the engagement of the Bryansk region’s ammunition depot with ATACMS missiles during a news conference, President Volodymyr Zelensky opted not to divulge specific information but acknowledged Ukraine’s enhanced long-range capabilities, which now include domestically produced long-range drones along with the newly acquired ATACMS.
In a statement reported by Russian news agencies, the Defence Ministry of Russia claimed to have intercepted five ATACMS missiles and inflicted damage on one additional missile. The remaining debris fell onto an unspecified military facility’s territory, igniting a fire but reportedly causing no significant damage or casualties, according to the ministry.
Karachev is situated approximately 115km from the Russia-Ukraine frontier, with Ukraine demonstrating the ability to strike deeper into Russian territory during the course of the conflict, primarily utilizing drones. Notably, Russian officials have reported intercepting Ukrainian drones over Moscow, which sits around 500km from the border, and most recently in Izhevsk, a city located nearly 1450km from the conflict zone.
Ukrainian officials have reported a third deadly Russian strike in as many days, targeting a residential area and resulting in the tragic loss of at least 12 lives, including that of a child. This strike involved a Shahed drone that hit a dormitory of an educational facility located in the northern Sumy region, with authorities indicating that 11 others were wounded, including two children, and more individuals might still be trapped beneath the rubble.
This succession of aerial strikes underscores President Zelensky’s position that Putin lacks genuine interest in pursuing peace. Zelensky emphatically stated, “Each new attack by Russia only confirms Putin’s true intentions. He wants the war to continue. Talks about peace are not interesting to him. We must force Russia to a just peace by force.”
During a video address to legislators in the European Union, Zelensky disclosed that Russia has deployed approximately 11,000 North Korean troops along its borders with Ukraine, with estimates suggesting that this number could escalate to 100,000 in the future.
He made an in-person appearance at the Ukrainian parliament to unveil what he characterized as a “resilience plan” designed to fortify the country against the ongoing Russian onslaught, anticipating critical developments will transpire in the war in the coming year.
This strategic plan comprises new methodologies for military management, including establishing a military ombudsman position and a revamped system for managing military contracts. Despite the pressing manpower shortages on the front lines, especially within infantry units, there are currently no intentions to lower the mobilisation age from the existing threshold of 25.
Amid the urgency to address its personnel shortages, Ukraine aims to leverage its newly acquired longer-range missiles strategically to help mitigate the tempo of Russian advances, as advocated by Jack Watling, an analyst from the Royal United Services Institute in London. He notes that while Ukraine’s partners face limitations in altering the dynamics of the fighting on the front lines, targeting Russian capabilities presently conferring battlefield advantages could buy essential time for Ukraine.
Next year, Zelensky articulated ambitions to manufacture at least 30,000 long-range drones and produce 3,000 long-range missiles as a measure to reduce reliance on Western military assistance. A comprehensive version of this plan is scheduled for presentation next month.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte addressed the ongoing deliberations among Western nations regarding further assistance for Ukraine, emphasizing the necessity for “more aid and more financial resources” in light of the North Korean involvement.
Meanwhile, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola led a special plenary session honoring the “one thousand days of terror, suffering and unimaginable loss” experienced by Ukraine. She praised the resilience of the Ukrainian people, asserting, “Your people are an inspiration to all who value freedom around the world,” in a heartfelt message to Zelensky.
**Interview with Military Analyst, Dr. Elena Ivanova**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Ivanova. Let’s discuss the recent developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, particularly Ukraine’s use of the ATACMS missiles against targets in Russia’s Bryansk region. What are the implications of this escalation?
**Dr. Ivanova:** Thank you for having me. The deployment of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine marks a significant shift in the conflict dynamics. It demonstrates not only Ukraine’s growing military capabilities but also its intent to change the calculus of this war by hitting strategic targets on Russian soil. This could potentially shift the balance of power, but it also escalates the risk of retaliation from Russia, which could lead to further intensification of hostilities.
**Interviewer:** Indeed, Russia has responded by officially lowering its nuclear weapons threshold. How does this change the stakes for both nations?
**Dr. Ivanova:** Russia’s decision is alarming and highlights the increasing possibility of nuclear weapon use in a conventional conflict—something we haven’t seen in decades. It signals that Moscow may view any significant military action against it as a trigger for nuclear response. This escalation complicates the situation for Ukraine and its allies, as it adds a layer of fear and uncertainty into their strategic planning.
**Interviewer:** Given that Ukraine is facing immense pressure along the front lines and has also reported civilian casualties from Russian strikes, how can they maintain their resolve while managing these risks?
**Dr. Ivanova:** Ukraine is under severe strain, both militarily and socially. The civilian casualties are tragic and contribute to the urgency of the situation. However, Ukraine appears firm in its resolve, bolstered by both military support from Western allies and public sentiment. President Zelensky’s focus on military resilience indicates that they are adopting a dual strategy—engaging in active defense while seeking to destabilize Russia’s position. But sustaining this effort will require continuous international support.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned the involvement of North Korean troops on the Russian side. How does this foreign intervention affect the conflict?
**Dr. Ivanova:** The introduction of North Korean troops is significant as it reflects Russia’s desperation to reinforce its military capabilities amid ongoing losses. This foreign combatant presence can lead to a more prolonged and escalated conflict, as it brings in new dynamics and potentially new tactics to the battlefield. For Ukraine, it means they are dealing with an even more complicated adversary, which could strain their own resources further.
**Interviewer:** As we approach a potential change in leadership in the US with President-elect Donald Trump, do you foresee any shifts in support for Ukraine?
**Dr. Ivanova:** Trump’s election could indeed alter the US’s approach to the Ukraine conflict. His previous criticisms of financial commitments may influence how robustly the US continues to support Ukraine. A decrease in aid or military support could embolden Russia and complicate Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Conversely, if Trump believes in a strong Ukraine as a bulwark against Russian aggression, we might see a continued or even heightened support, but that remains to be seen.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Ivanova, for your insights. The conflict continues to evolve rapidly, and it will be crucial to monitor how these developments unfold in the coming months.
**Dr. Ivanova:** You’re welcome. It was a pleasure to discuss this critical issue. The coming months will be pivotal, and I hope for a resolution that can bring peace back to the region.
